Abstract
This Canadian hepatitis C model estimates economic burden of disease using Markov modeling to predict progression over 11 health states annually from 2001 to 2040. Incidence-based estimates help demonstrate the capability to determine cost-effectiveness of programs to prevent different proportions of incident cases. Benefits of prevention increase linearly with the number of incident cases prevented. The model forecasts annual health care costs for the treatment of HCV-related disease ranging from $103 to $158 million over time. Health care costs attributable to 2001 incidence cohort are forecast at $14.6 million for prevention. The increasing cost of HCV provides a framework for further analysis and implementation of long-term policies aimed at appropriate allocation of resources for health in Canada.
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