Economic analysis of a low carbon path to 2050: A case for China, India and Japan

Abstract

This article studies the economic implications that different global GHG emission mitigation policies may have in the major Asian economies, namely, China, India, and Japan. The analysis covers the period 2010–2050 and is performed by means of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (GEM-E3). Four scenarios are investigated: the three standard AME scenarios, and a fourth scenario with a GHG emission reduction path compatible with the 2°C target, reducing global GHG emissions in 2050 by 50%, relative to 2005. The scenarios are compared with the already adopted and announced policies of the respective countries, in the context of the Copenhagen pledges for 2020 and their long-term objectives in 2050. We further discuss the role of energy efficiency measures and zero-carbon power technologies in order to reach the long-term 2°C target. We find that postponing significant emission reductions may not accrue an economic benefit over time whereas it may increase some risks by possibly overstretching the reliance on zero-carbon technologies.