Ecological vulnerability assessment based on AHP-PSR method and analysis of its single parameter sensitivity and spatial autocorrelation for ecological protection – A case of Weifang City, China

Abstract

With the continuous development of society, the contradiction between human and nature becomes increasingly prominent, and ecological vulnerability assessment is an effective tool to alleviate the contradiction. In this study, AHP-PSR (Analytic Hierarchy Process - Press-State-Response) model was used to assess the ecological vulnerability of Weifang City. PSR model was used to select parameters, AHP was used to determine the weights of parameters, and GIS was used to assess ecological vulnerability. Based on the results of ecological vulnerability assessment, the inherent ecological vulnerability assessment, single parameter sensitivity analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were carried out in order to provide specific suggestions for ecological development and protection in this area and provide new ideas for ecological vulnerability research. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability is from low to high, with an area of 44.1%, 44.3%, 9.7%, 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. The areas of inherent ecological vulnerability ranged from low to high are 27.2%, 38.2%, 18.0%, 6.8% and 9.8% respectively. The difference between the assessment results of ecological vulnerability and that of intrinsic ecological vulnerability, indicates the role of human society in changing the inherent natural ecological vulnerability. Human beings can improve the original highly vulnerable ecological environment through their positive activities. The single parameter sensitivity analysis supports this view. Higher and high ecological vulnerability areas should prohibit all acts that damage the ecological environment and improve the vulnerable ecological environment through positive human activities. The areas with high spatial autocorrelation mainly include the north and southeast of Shouguang County, the northeast and south of Anqiu County, Fangzi District, Hanting District, Weicheng District, Kuiwen District, Linqu County, Qingzhou County, Zhucheng County, and Gaomi County. In the case of ecological governance, priority can be given to these areas. This study can provide scientific basis for ecological construction and protection of Weifang City. Single parameter sensitivity analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis can guide the management of ecological vulnerable areas.