Abstract
Climate is the dominant control factor on the spatial distribution of organisms on a global scale and global warming is predicted to become a major cause of species extinctions. In our study ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate the effect of projected future climate changes on the pantropical orchid Polystacha concreta as well as to reconstruct changes in the distribution of the suitable climatic niches of this species since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The study revealed small differences in the niches occupied by populations of P. concreta recorded in various continents; however, these alterations will become more significant in regard to future climatic change. While losses of suitable habitats of the studied orchid will occur in the Americas and Africa, global warming will be favorable for Asian populations. Our study suggests a significant loss of niches since the LGM which indicates that the currently observed loss of habitats is not only the result of human activity but also of natural changes of the Earth’s climate. From the obtained models we identified the areas that will be the most resistant regarding the modifications caused by climate change.
Highlights
While the orchid family is one of the largest groups of flowering p lants[1,2], many members of this taxon are among the most endangered – in part due to their dependance on particular climatic and vegetational niches, and regarding their specific associations with mycorrhizal fungi and pollinators
Climate is the principal factor determining the spatial distribution of the main vegetational types on a global scale, while on a smaller scale, the impact of secondary factors such as type of the soil or topography are critical as well[5]
Our study results indicated small differences in the niches occupied by populations of P. concreta in various continents and the variance in the climatic factors crucial for the occurrence of this species within its geographical range
Summary
While the orchid family is one of the largest groups of flowering p lants[1,2], many members of this taxon are among the most endangered – in part due to their dependance on particular climatic and vegetational niches, and regarding their specific associations with mycorrhizal fungi and pollinators. Global warming has been shown to significantly impact the phenology of plants and their pollinators. Changes in species distribution caused by climate warming affect their interactions with other organisms. For the effective conservation of orchids, all aspect of their associations with pollinators, mycorrhizal fungi, and host plants (regarding epiphytes) should be considered to determine in which way the complex biology of these plants will be affected by future global climate c hange[4]. To ensure the success of long-term conservation, environmental protection efforts should be focused on those areas that will not be significantly affected by global warming within a predictable period of time. In this study we applied an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach to estimate the possible effect of global warming on the orchid Polystacha concreta (Hook.) Garay & H. We conducted statistical analyses to evaluate the difference in the niches occupied by populations of the studied orchid in various parts of its geographical range
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