Abstract
This paper studies the budgetary and trade implications of European Union (EU) membership of Eastern European countries under various agricultural policy scenarios. The author uses a six‐region, 13‐sector general‐equilibrium model with many explicitly modeled agricultural and trade policies. It is found that EU membership of Eastern European countries, including their adoption of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), leads to a surge in Eastern Europe’s agricultural exports. Moreover, the EU’s agricultural expenditure increases by 26%. A reform of the CAP following the Agenda 2000 proposal does not reduce the cost of enlargement if Eastern European farmers receive compensation payments.
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