Earthquake Risk Study on Residential Buildings in West Jakarta using the Event-Based Risk Analysis Method

Abstract

UNISDR (United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction) states that Indonesia is in the third-highest rank after Japan and the United States for the average economic loss due to earthquakes. Previous earthquake risk studies conducted by the National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB) in 2011 renewed in 2016 both in the form of risk indexes have yet taken into account the vulnerability function of buildings, so that economic loss has not been presented quantitatively. This research aims to analyse earthquake risk in urban areas (West Jakarta Municipality) using the Event-Based Risk Analysis method by applying several factors including: earthquake source updates, GMPE, site-specific, exposure and building vulnerability functions. Hazard and risk analyses have been conducted for the probability of exceedance (PoEs) 10% and 2% in 50 years. Moreover, risk analysis was conducted for residential buildings exposure. The results predict that the lowest total building loss due to the earthquake per district is around 8.1 million USD and the highest loss is 15.5 million USD at a PoEs 10% in 50 years. Whereas for the PoEs 2% in 50 years, the lowest total loss was 14.86 million USD whilst the highest total loss was 25 million USD.