Early childhood growth trajectories in a Medicaid population.

Abstract

Evidence on the role of early growth trajectories and later obesity risk is primarily based on privately insured or universally insured samples. We aimed to characterize and determine factors associated with early growth trajectories and estimate associations with overweight/obesity risk in a Medicaid-insured and uninsured cohort. Infants seen at a large pediatric academic centre in 2010-2016 were included. Weight and length/height measurements were converted to age and sex-specific BMI z-scores (BMIz) based on the World Health Organization (WHO) Growth Standards. Group-based trajectories were modelled using BMIz created groups. Logistic and log-binomial regression models estimated associations between membership in trajectories and maternal/child factors and overweight or obesity at 36, 48, and 60 months, separately. Analyses were performed between 2019 and 2021. The best-fitting model identified five BMIz trajectories among 30 189 children and 310 113 clinical encounters; two trajectories showed rapid rise in BMIz. Lower maternal education, pre-pregnancy maternal overweight/obese status, and maternal smoking were positively associated with both rapid-rising BMIz trajectories. Children in either of the two rapid-rising trajectories were 3.00 (95% CI: 2.85, 3.25), 2.97 (95% CI: 2.77, 3.18) and 2.76 (95% CI: 2.53, 3.01) times more likely to have overweight or obesity at 36, 48, and 60 months, respectively compared to children in the stable trajectory groups. Among Medicaid insured and uninsured children, several maternal and child characteristics were associated with early rapid-rise in BMIz. Clinical monitoring of early rapidly rising BMI may be important to address modifiable risk factors for obesity in families from low-income households.