Dynamic Simulation Research on Operation Safety of Main Canal of South-to-North Water Transfer Based on Risk Input

Abstract

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project will pose a great threat to the lives and property safety of people along the route once a dangerous situation occurs. Therefore, this paper analyzes the historical risk data of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project to identify risk sources, combs the actual risk occurrence process with the basic structure of "Risk Factor→Destruction Link→Destruction Mode", and builds a main canal system risk interpretation model. At the same time, taking the typical high-fill section of the main canal of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project as an example, a typical failure evolution process is selected to construct a dynamic simulation model based on system dynamics to simulate the failure process of the canal embankment under three kinds of manual intervention, as the channel operation under risk input scheduling decisions provides new ideas.