Dynamic risk assessment: A validation study

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of the study was to expand the dynamic content areas of psycho-social functioning employed with correctional offenders when predicting post-release outcome. In this study we utilized a similar methodology from a forensic mental health study that successfully measured dynamic change as it related to release incidents (Quinsey, Jones, Book, & Barr, 2006). MethodThis manuscript outlines the methodology and preliminary results of the predictive power of dynamic variables over static variables in the prediction of risk. Participants consisted of 133 male offenders paroled from Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) correctional facilities from June 11, 2008 – January 31, 2011. This study utilized a 7-wave data collection procedure (upon community re-entry and monthly follow-up for a minimum of 6months) with measures designed to measure criminal risk or that have proven related to criminal outcomes. ResultsResults indicated adequate internal consistency reliability, temporal stability, and inter-rater reliability; however, convergent validity for the selected rated measures were unstable. Consequently, the inclusion of dynamic risk factors did not contribute to the predictive power of static variables. ConclusionChanges in offenders dynamic functioning was not associated with changes in community outcomes. Implications of these results are discussed.