Dynamic behavior analysis of an SVIR epidemic model with two time delays associated with the COVID-19 booster vaccination time.

Abstract

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, there has been widespread concern in the community, especially on the recent heated debate about when to get the booster vaccination. In order to explore the optimal time for receiving booster shots, here we construct an SVIR model with two time delays based on temporary immunity. Second, we theoretically analyze the existence and stability of equilibrium and further study the dynamic properties of Hopf bifurcation. Then, the statistical analysis is conducted to obtain two groups of parameters based on the official data, and numerical simulations are carried out to verify the theoretical analysis. As a result, we find that the equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the booster vaccination time is within the critical value. Moreover, the results of the simulations also exhibit globally stable properties, which might be more beneficial for controlling the outbreak. Finally, we propose the optimal time of booster vaccination and predict when the outbreak can be effectively controlled.