Abstract
Natural disasters may act as harmful causes of food insecurity in the Middle East. Frequent drought events, water scarcity, and unsustainable intensive agricultural practices may impact food security in the region. This paper investigates a causal relationship between drought and food security across the Middle East. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts are analyzed at multiple timescales over the region for seven decades during the period of 1948–2017. We simulate food security in the Middle East as a function of drought (representing a water stress factor) as well as several other socio-economic drivers. A Bayesian approach is implemented to integrate these drivers in order to accurately predict food security in the region. Results reveal that hydrological drought is the most intensified drought type over the region, especially in Egypt, during the study period. Moreover, the results demonstrate the significant impacts of livestock, population growth, agricultural products, and drought on food security in the Middle East. Our findings further indicate that the agricultural products decreased in the Middle East following the recent drought event that happened in 2010.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
