Abstract
Drought is a condition of a shortage of water that has an impact on economic activity. This research studies the severe drought area in Indonesia using Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA), based on daily precipitation data recorded at nine stations. The analysis reveals five homogeneous regions, based on discordancy and heterogeneity tests. Furthermore, the L-moment approach is applied to investigate the regional distribution and suggests that the Pearson type III distribution is the distribution that best fits the five regions. This distribution is also used to calculate the regional growth curve that is employed in the drought analysis. The drought return period analysis, for conditions of 40% of normal rainfall, concludes that the region containing the Fransiskus Xaverius, Gewayantana, and Mali stations has the highest drought risk, indicated by the fastest return period estimate of 2 years and 4 months. Moreover, the extreme drought analysis shows that two of the regions have the potential to experience the return of extreme drought, with less than 20% of normal rainfall, in less than four years.
Highlights
Drought can be defined in a general way as a reduction in water supply or moisture that is temporarily significantly below the normal or expected volume for a certain period
Based on data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), East Nusa Tenggara (Nusa Tenggara Timur, hereafter denoted as NTT) province is one of the provinces in Indonesia that experiences a severe drought. e province is listed as the top priority in the region that is most vulnerable to drought
At the beginning of September 2018, several districts in East Nusa Tenggara experienced extreme drought, with up to 60 days without rain [5]. Considering this fact, it is important to study the future pattern of the drought in NTT which will be useful for formulating proper adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize drought risks. erefore, this paper investigates hydrological drought in NTT
Summary
Drought can be defined in a general way as a reduction in water supply or moisture that is temporarily significantly below the normal or expected volume for a certain period. At the beginning of September 2018, several districts in East Nusa Tenggara experienced extreme drought, with up to 60 days without rain [5] Considering this fact, it is important to study the future pattern of the drought in NTT which will be useful for formulating proper adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize drought risks. E present study estimates the return period of drought events in East Nusa Tenggara through RFA, using daily rainfall data from nine rainfall measurement stations in the province from the period 2015 to 2017. The objectives of this study can be listed as follows: (1) to cluster regions in NTT based on the drought characteristics; (2) to estimate drought return period in NTT based on daily rainfall using RFA. Is paper is organized as follows. e data examined, as well as the methods used in the analysis, are described in the Materials and Methods section, and the paper continues with the Results and Discussion sections. e last section concludes the analysis
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