Drivers of Change

The article explores the drivers for legislative and policy change in children's social care in England over the past 60 years. It describes the factors that led to the major children's social care legislation and explores how these ‘drivers for change’ varied in their importance over time. Particular attention is given to the impact of research evidence as a driver for change among, for example tragedy and media scandal, political developments and changes in practice prompting legislative reform. The article also notes how research has at times provided a background for change while not explicitly promoting the change itself. The use of performance information and research in shaping and monitoring change is seen to have increased in the past 30 years, but with continuing tensions between a natural and necessary research timescale and the political wish for quick and clear answers to pressing issues.

Real estate industry in general and its business models in particular are standing at the beginning of a transformation process, caused by fundamental and multidimensional change in technology, economy and society. The drivers of this change can be classified into three dimensions: social development, change of economic structure and digitalization. Although these transformation processes' effects are already visible, immediate consequences for market participants of the real estate industry remain largely uncertain. They are without a doubt going to affect the value system of the real estate industry, because the market environment and therefore business models of relevant participants are changing and will continue to do so. As a result, the demarcation line of the value system is going to become blurred, and a reform of the internal structure will take place. Many organizations struggle to grasp the full extent of this process, which can be seen by a predominant, exclusive focus on digitalization.The goal of this research is to determine and systemize the drivers of change affecting the real estate industry. Thereby, the author delineates variations of business models and points out which drivers of change have an impact on which business model.Based on a systematic literature review, a theoretical framework will be developed, in order to determine and systemize drivers of change in the real estate industry. This framework will be tested empirically by a quantitative survey of German real estate market participants. The appraisals are enquired using multivariate analyses and multidimensional scaling (MDS).An exhaustive systematization of all essential drivers of change cannot be found in the existing body of literature. Only if the effects of the drivers and the consequential impacts on business models in the real estate industry are anticipated correctly, management approaches dealing with future challenges and actively shaping the transformation processes can be developed properly. The research results will help to characterize the need for adjustment in real estate industry. Furthermore, it could reveal approaches for developing new and innovative business models.

Purpose: The aim of the study was to examine the primary drivers of the recent changes observed in global ocean circulation patterns in Mozambique Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The study revealed that primary drivers of the recent changes observed in global ocean circulation patterns are involving a combination of natural variability and anthropogenic influences. Key factors identified include global warming, alterations in wind patterns, sea surface temperature anomalies, and increased freshwater input from melting ice caps and glaciers. These elements interact in intricate ways to influence the dynamics of ocean currents, which are critical for regulating Earth's climate and supporting marine ecosystems. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Bronfenbrenner's Ecological Systems Theory & Abraham Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs may be used to anchor future studies on primary drivers of the recent changes observed in global ocean circulation patterns in Mozambique. Increase investment in global ocean monitoring systems, such as Argo floats, satellite missions, and autonomous underwater vehicles, to collect high-resolution data on temperature, salinity, and currents. This data is crucial for validating models and understanding the current state and trends of ocean circulation. Strengthen international cooperation to address global warming, a primary driver of changes in ocean circulation. This includes adhering to and expanding commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) has been a hotspot for land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the past few decades. The identification and quantification of the drivers of LULCC are crucial for improving our understanding of LULCC trends. So far, the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change have not been quantified at the regional scale, particularly for SSEA. In this study, we quantify the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change on a country-by-country basis in SSEA using an integrated quantitative methodology, which systematically accounts for previously published driver information and regional datasets. We synthesize more than 200 publications to identify the drivers of the forest change at different spatial scales in SSEA. Subsequently, we collect spatially explicit proxy data to represent the identified drivers. We quantify the dynamics of forest and agricultural land from 1992 to 2015 using the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) land cover data developed by the European Space Agency (ESA). A geographically weighted regression method is employed to quantify the spatially heterogeneous drivers of forest change. Our results show that socioeconomic drivers are more important than biophysical drivers for the conversion of forest to agricultural land in South Asia and maritime Southeast Asia. In contrast, biophysical drivers are more important than socioeconomic drivers for the conversion of agricultural land to forest in maritime Southeast Asia and less important in South Asia. Both biophysical and socioeconomic drivers contribute approximately equally to both changes in the mainland Southeast Asia region. By quantifying the dynamics of forest and agricultural land and the spatially explicit drivers of their changes in SSEA, this study provides a solid foundation for LULCC modeling and projection.

Birds are high profile elements of the vertebrate biota in almost all terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Many studies have uncovered evidence of a decline in bird biodiversity, but temporal patterns of change vary among ecosystems and among bird species with different life history traits. Ecosystem-specific, long-term studies are critical for identifying patterns of temporal change in bird biodiversity and the drivers of that change. Here we present a case study of drivers of temporal change in the bird fauna of the Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia. Using insights from observational studies and experiments conducted over the past 18 years, we discuss the direct and interactive effects of fire and logging on birds. The extent and severity of wildfires have major negative effects on almost all bird species, and have persisted for more than a decade after the last major conflagration (in 2009). Logging has markedly different effects on birds than those quantified for fire, and may have resulted in elevated levels of site occupancy in remaining uncut areas in the landscape. Both fire and logging have led to marked losses in the extent of old growth forest in Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash ecosystems. This is a concern given the strong association of most species of birds with old forest relative to younger age cohorts. Based on an understanding of the effects of fire and logging as drivers of change, we propose a series of inter-related management actions designed to enhance the conservation of avifauna in Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash ecosystems. A particular focus of management must be on increasing the interval between fires and limiting the spatial extent of wildfires and, in turn, significantly expanding the extent of old growth forest. This is because old growth forest is where most bird species are most likely to occur, and in the event of future wildfires, where fire severity will be lowest. Expansion of the old growth estate will require commercial logging operations to be excluded from large parts of Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash forests.

Chapter 2 - Key drivers of flood risk change

Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) are experiencing a Diet-Related Non-Communicable Disease (DR-NCD) health crisis(1). Increasing rates of DR-NCDs such as Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease have been linked to dietary transitions and increasing food insecurity in the region(2). Anthropogenic climate change has also been identified as a significant threat to food security in PICTs(3). Additionally, the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic have been identified as both a contributor to food insecurity in the region and as an opportunity to transform PICT food systems and reduce rates of DR-NCDs(4). Yet, the drivers of dietary change, food security and agricultural practices in peripheral PICT communities are not well documented or understood. To determine how these drivers may change in the future and the impacts this may have on Pacific peoples, a deeper understanding of the historical and contemporary drivers of change is necessary. The aim of this scoping review was to collate existing information to improve this understanding, by mapping key factors evident in the literature that underpin the links between DR-NCDs and food security with a focus on women in PICT peripheral communities, to better clarify the challenges, working definitions and conceptual boundaries in the research area. The review maps where research has been conducted geographically and how the links between DR-NCDs and food security in PICTs have been investigated over time and identifies projections and suggestions for the future. The scoping review was conducted in accordance with a pre-defined protocol available online(5). A total of 476 peer-reviewed sources and 126 grey literature sources were identified by the initial search criteria. Two independent researchers completed title/abstract and full text screening using Covidence, and data extraction using a data extraction tool. The resulting data was quantified in table format, with common themes and ideas presented qualitatively. Sources spanned all sectors of PICT food systems with a heavy focus on production from fisheries and agriculture. Most PICTs were represented in the findings. Many drivers of change within food systems were identified, some of which included the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and urbanisation. The drivers impacted all four pillars of food security, and many were directly or indirectly related to dietary and lifestyle changes associated with DR-NCD risk factors. This data is accompanied by an interpretation of results and a narrative summary. These results provide a useful platform to further explore the drivers of dietary change, food security, agricultural practices and DR-NCD’s in this region.

The spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services bundles and the social-economic-ecological drivers in the Yellow River Delta region

Purpose This study examines changes in body-worn camera (BWC) policies. It aims to analyze trends in policy change, identify the drivers of policy change, and examine the degree of convergence over time, offering insights into the growing implementation of BWCs in policing. Design/methodology/approach To study BWC policy change, we examine data collected through an established policy review process to compare the original (2016–2021) and current (as of September 2023) BWC policies of 160 law enforcement agencies that received federal funding for cameras. Surveys from two dozen agencies provided insights on the drivers of BWC policy change. Findings Results indicate BWC policy changes are common, as 81% of agencies changed their policies at least once. Overall, we documented 957 unique changes to policy. Changes often involved additional parameters or restrictions on a policy issue (42%), though complete removal of policy language was also common (36.1%). Changes in technology and lessons learned/experiences were the biggest drivers of BWC policy change. Drawing on institutional theory, we also conduct an exploratory examination of the degree of policy convergence over time (e.g. increased similarity), and the evidence is consistent with that theory. Originality/value Police leaders, researchers, and policymakers unanimously highlight the importance of administrative policy in guiding an agency’s body-worn camera (BWC) program. However, there have been virtually no studies on the topic, and fundamental questions about BWC policy (and change in BWC policy) remain unanswered. The findings have implications for the growing evidence base on BWCs, as well as for law enforcement agencies that deploy the technology.

In modern conditions, the higher education system of the Russian Federation is characterized by high degree of changeability. It is caused by need of quick and adequate response to changes of internal and external environment. The specified changes are determined by the nature of requirements and interests of stakeholders, which interact with higher education institutions: satisfaction of needs of stakeholders becomes an ultimate goal of development and the most important condition of existence of any organization, including the sector of higher education. Therefore, stakeholders become the main driving forces (drivers) of change in activity of higher education institutions. The research goal is to systematize drivers of change in the higher education system of the Russian Federation. The main research methods are analysis (for detection of the set of drivers of change), classification (for allocation of types of drivers), and the construction method of managerial models (for creation of matrices of changes). Following the research results, current changes in activity of Russian higher education institutions are divided into 4 types: changes in educational, research, innovation and entrepreneurial management activity. The main groups of stakeholders (drivers of change) are distinguished, and their influence on change in activity of higher education institutions is justified. Drivers of change are classified by 2 features: “by attitude to a higher education institution” – into external and internal, “by nature” – into obligatory and initiative. The matrices of necessary and initiative changes are designed. They create interrelation between types of changes and their influence on interests of key stakeholders of Russian higher education institutions (effects, which can be favorable, unfavorable and neutral). The possibility of using the matrices of changes as a tool of managerial decision-making in activity of Russian universities is justified.

Landuse/Landcover (LULC) changes are recognised as some of the major causes of environmental problems like land degradation and climate change. To achieve sustainability, we need to properly understand such changes in order to have adequate information that will enable us to design and implementing measures to mitigate their negative impacts. Doing this particularly requires a proper understanding of how stakeholders perceive the changes in general and their drivers in particular. Unfortunately,not much is known for many areas about the perspective of landuse stakeholders on drivers of LULC changes. This paper reports the results of a study conducted to examine the perceptions of different landuse stakeholders on drivers of LULC changes in Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria.Questionnaire survey was utilised, involving 514 households across four settlements, 2 rural (Karshi and Orozo) and 2 urban (Nyanya and Karu) towns in the territory, which were complimented with Focus Group Discussions were conducted. The results obtained showed that urban dwellers are largely aware of drivers of changes in socioeconomic drivers (physical development on lands, more commercial complex development and more institutional development). Rural dwellers are largely aware of environmental drivers of LULC changes (bush burning, livestock overgrazing, collections of wood and medicinal plants,and agricultural expansion). It was concluded that there is the need to bring about a harmonisation of the perceptions of LULC change drivers by the rural and urban dwellers so as to bring about a common front understanding and responding to LULC changes in the study area.

Plant disease epidemiology requires expansion of its current methodological and theoretical underpinnings in order to produce full contributions to global food security and global changes. Here, we outline a framework which we applied to farmers' field survey data set on rice diseases in the tropical and subtropical lowlands of Asia. Crop health risks arise from individual diseases, as well as their combinations in syndromes. Four key drivers of agricultural change were examined: labor, water, fertilizer, and land availability that translate into crop establishment method, water shortage, fertilizer input, and fallow period duration, respectively, as well as their combinations in production situations. Various statistical approaches, within a hierarchical structure, proceeding from higher levels of hierarchy (production situations and disease syndromes) to lower ones (individual components of production situations and individual diseases) were used. These analyses showed that (i) production situations, as wholes, represent very large risk factors (positive or negative) for occurrence of disease syndromes; (ii) production situations are strong risk factors for individual diseases; (iii) drivers of agricultural change represent strong risk factors of disease syndromes; and (iv) drivers of change, taken individually, represent small but significant risk factors for individual diseases. The latter analysis indicates that different diseases are positively or negatively associated with shifts in these drivers. We also report scenario analyses, in which drivers of agricultural change are varied in response to possible climate and global changes, generating predictions of shifts in rice health risks. The overall set of analyses emphasizes the need for large-scale ground data to define research priorities for plant protection in rapidly evolving contexts. They illustrate how a structured theoretical framework can be used to analyze emergent features of agronomic and socioecological systems. We suggest that the concept of "disease syndrome" can be borrowed in botanical epidemiology from public health to emphasize a holistic view of disease in shifting production situations in combination with the conventional, individual disease-centered perspective.

In the recent few decades, Vietnam has experienced a considerable change in land use/land cover (LULC), especially forest land. However, there is not a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics and drivers at the nationwide spatial scale for a long-term period. In this research, we estimate the socioeconomic and biophysical drivers of forest changes at the commune scale. Utilizing our results from the Vietnam-wide annual LULC database available in the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), we first computed the dynamic changes in forest land from 1990 to 2020. To decide the major drivers of the changes, we conduct a synthesis of case studies working on the analysis of the forest changes in Vietnam at various spatial levels. Subsequently, a machine learning technique was adopted to measure the drivers of the forest changes. Our results indicate that although the forest area has increased from 2005 to 2010, it has undergone a decrease over the full study period. There is a dramatic conversion between forest and agricultural land, especially in the North-West and Central Highlands. This conversion is mainly driven by agricultural expansion/shifting, topographic position index, accessibility/infrastructure, population growth/migration, and distance to systems such as irrigation, drainage, and mining/industry. The identification of the drivers in this study is likely to help enhance the accuracy of the land use/land cover change prediction. These findings provide coherent evidence-based information about the dynamics and drivers of forest changes at the nationwide spatial and decadal temporal scales and thus can support informing land policies in Vietnam.

Forest ecosystems contain several climate‐sensitive drivers that respond differentially to changes in climate and climate variability. For example, growth and regeneration processes are “stand‐scale” drivers, while natural disturbances operate at “landscape scale”. The relative contributions of these different scale drivers of change in ecosystems create great uncertainty when simulating potential responses of a forest to changes in climate.Here, we assess those contributions, along with harvesting effects, on biomass (both total and of individual species) in the southern boreal forest of Canada under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6,RCP4.5 andRCP8.5).Projections were performed for three future 30‐year time periods, in four study regions located on an east–west transect, using a forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II), parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS). Projected future impacts were assessed for each driver of change, and found to vary greatly among regions, species, future period and forcing scenarios. Fire, and stand‐scale climate‐induced impacts, had the strongest effects on forest vegetation, as well as on total and species’ biomass under mostRCPscenarios, but the largest impacts occurred mostly after 2050, particularly with theRCP8.5 scenario.The relative importance and trends in species‐specific impacts varied, both spatially and according to the differentRCPscenarios. Western regions were generally more sensitive to stand‐scale climate‐induced changes, whereas eastern regions were more sensitive to changes in fire regime. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the prevalence of species‐level functional traits when assessing the sensitivity of forest landscapes to a given driver of change in the context of increasing anthropogenic climate forcing.Synthesis. Increases in fire activity, and direct impacts of climate change on forest growth and regeneration, will be the most important drivers of future changes in southern boreal forest landscapes.

Organisations are increasingly turning to Innovative Workplaces to offer employees more collaborative workspaces, improve employees' productivity through a larger worksetting variety and reduce real estate underutilisation. This chapter begins with exploring the history of office workplaces prior to identifying the drivers of workplace change and a discussion on the current research on Activity Based Working offices that is a form of innovative workplace forecasted to increase adoption post-COVID 19. These topics provides the basis to identify future research required in Innovative workplaces ranging from the drivers of workplace change, in-depth studies on the architectural and functional ABW features, managing Space Pressure, how employees experience the workplace and the workplace change management process, the appropriateness of a one-size fits all office concept, and the implementation process extending years post-moving in. Overall, the future directions of research on innovative workplaces lean towards transdisciplinary research to design an innovative workplace that is adaptable to economic, social, technological and organisational drivers of change. An integration of the drivers of change with various disciplines (Architecture, Corporate Real Estate, Facilities Management, Workplace Change Management, Human Resources Management, Technology and Psychology) are required to design the physical and functional features of the future innovative workplace.