Abstract
Abstract: The lack of implementation of well-designed public policies aimed at the conservation of natural ecosystems has resulted, at a global level, in the decline of ecosystem functioning and, consequently, of the contributions they make to people. The poor enforcement of important environmental legislation in Brazil - for instance, the “Atlantic Forest Law” (Law n.11.428/2006) and the “Forest Code” (Law n.12.651/2012) - could compromise the overall maintenance of ecosystems and the services they provide. To explore the implications of different levels of federal laws’ enforcement within the Cantareira System Protected Area (PA) - a PA in southeastern Brazil that provides fresh water for 47% of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area -, we developed a conceptual framework to identify indirect and direct drives of biodiversity and ecosystem changes. We also projected four land-use scenarios to 2050 to test the effects of deforestation control and forest restoration practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services maintenance: the “business-as-usual” scenario (BAU), which assumes that all trends in land-use cover changes observed in the past will continue in the future, and three alternative exploratory scenarios considering the Atlantic Forest Law implementation, the partial implementation of the Forest Code and the full implementation of the Forest Code. Using the land-use maps generated for each scenario, we assessed the impacts of land-use changes on biodiversity conservation and soil retention. Our results revealed all alternative scenarios could increase biodiversity conservation (by 7%; 12%; and 12%, respectively), reduce soil loss (by 24.70%; 34.70%; and 38.12%, respectively) and sediment exportation to water (by 27.47%; 55.06%; and 59.28%, respectively), when compared to the BAU scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of restoring and conserving native vegetation for the maintenance and improvement of biodiversity conservation and for the provision of ecosystem services.
Highlights
Human well-being depends directly and indirectly on nature, and the complexity of these interactions is very difficult to map or measure
Pastureland is the predominant land-use class in the Current situation (48% of total area), but its extent tended to decrease under the forest conservation (AFO) and restoration (PFC and FFC) scenarios, reducing to 30.2% in the most optimistic simulation
Atlantic Forest patches in different stages of secondary succession growing on former farmland as a result of active restoration or natural regeneration in areas set aside after legal requirement Predominantly small-scale agriculture comprising several different crops Pure stands of Eucalyptus spp. or Corymbia spp. planted for commercial exploitation in areas originally covered by Atlantic Forest Artificial grasslands maintained for livestock in areas originally covered by Atlantic
Summary
Human well-being depends directly and indirectly on nature, and the complexity of these interactions is very difficult to map or measure Despite these difficulties, there is abundant evidence worldwide that overall improvement in human well-being and economic development have resulted in negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services (hereafter BES) (MEA 2005, IPBES 2018, 2019). There is abundant evidence worldwide that overall improvement in human well-being and economic development have resulted in negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services (hereafter BES) (MEA 2005, IPBES 2018, 2019) According to these estimates, human activities have modified about half of the land and diverted half of the freshwater around the planet (MEA 2005, McGill 2015), triggering severe negative consequences for terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity and for their related ecosystem services, and affecting the long-term provision, regulation and maintenance of water, food, climate, soil and nutrient cycling. Model-based analysis can inform decision-making, by enabling the understanding of the implications of different scenarios for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning (Pereira 2010)
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