Domestic demands and regional risks

Abstract

In the summer of 2000, Bashar al-Asad inherited the presidency of Syria from his father, the long-ruling Hafiz al-Asad. This Paper evaluates the capacity of the new leadership to meet growing societal, economic, political and foreign policy demands. Halfway through Bashar al-Asad's first term, Syria finds itself in a rapidly changing regional environment. The country is undergoing a process of economic change which, in the long run, may add up to a full transformation from étatism to a market economy. Political factors, however, limit the reach and impact of economic reform. The new generation of leaders has a much deeper understanding of the country's reform needs, but they are not willing to risk their own hold on power. It is unlikely, therefore, that Syria's authoritarian structures will be dismantled in the near future. On the foreign-policy front, the first years of Bashar al-Asad's tenure coincided with the breakdown of the Middle East peace process, the Iraq war and that conflict's regional repercussions. The regional geopolitical situation has not made the task of reformers easier - rather, renewed tension in the Middle East has strengthened the hand of conservative elements in the regime.