Abstract
AbstractThe main thesis of this paper is that people in areas of (expected) population decline vote more populist to express their discontent about the current and future state of their place of residence. In many ways a “populist voting mark‐up” could be expected, as declining areas often are associated with being forgotten, fomenting societal discontent and mistrust in established political parties ultimately expected to lead to more populist votes. Using the outcomes of the Dutch national elections in 2012 and 2017, we link shares of populist votes for the PVV (Party for Freedom) and SP (Socialist Party) to indicators of population decline, as well as other demographic (“compositional effects”), local and regional characteristics (“contextual effects”) to appraise what causes higher rates of votes for populist parties in regions of decline. We do not find a “populist voting mark‐up” for declining regions when controlling for contextual effects. However, we do find that both the compositional and the contextual circumstances in areas of population decline are in such a way that they provoke discontent expressed in voting. We also conclude that it is very important to distinguish between different parties when their party programs are as contrasting as in the case of the PVV and the SP. Their different focus on immigration (PVV) and jobs (SP) is clearly visible in the results.
Highlights
Within the current Regional Science literature, there is growing interest in changing spatial voting patterns, in particular the geography of recent surges in populism (e.g., Becker, Fetzer, & Novy, 2017; Dijkstra, Poelman, & RodríguezPose, 2020; Gordon, 2018; Los, McCann, Springford, & Thissen, 2017; McCann, 2018, 2020; Rodríguez-Pose, 2018)
To better understand if population decline results in more votes for populist parties, we propose a model that explores the relationship between share of populist votes in a certain area, explained by population decline, as well as compositional and contextual characteristics of the area
In many ways a “populist voting markup” could be expected, as declining areas often are associated with being forgotten, fomenting societal discontent and mistrust in established political parties expected to lead to more populist votes
Summary
Within the current Regional Science literature, there is growing interest in changing spatial voting patterns, in particular the geography of recent surges in populism (e.g., Becker, Fetzer, & Novy, 2017; Dijkstra, Poelman, & RodríguezPose, 2020; Gordon, 2018; Los, McCann, Springford, & Thissen, 2017; McCann, 2018, 2020; Rodríguez-Pose, 2018) These patterns are so interesting because they provide indirect information about the perception of welfare, happiness or discontent. Population decline can have a negative effect on the stability of the economy and society, especially when at the regional level a feeling of inequality arises and people in declining areas feel left behind by the national government (Ubarevicienė, Van Ham, & Burneika, 2016) This feeling can be fed by higher unemployment levels, a decreasing supply of facilities and properties that are difficult to sell. Effects of demographic developments such as ageing population and low population density is intricate and results have been mixed, meriting further attention
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