Does pleasing export-oriented foreign investors help your balance of payments? A general equilibrium analysis

Abstract

Many developing countries have adopted investor-friendly policies in order to attract export-oriented foreign direct investment (FDI). The effects of these policies on the external accounts have largely been ignored. We endogenize FDI inflows in a structuralist general equilibrium framework to contribute towards filling this gap. Our economy consists of: (i) a non-tradable goods sector and (ii) an export processing zone (EPZ) that hosts transnational corporations. We find that most of the commonly pursued policies considered are likely to have a negative impact on the balance of payments due to: (i) income re-distribution towards groups more likely to spend on imported goods, (ii) higher capacity utilization in the (more import-intensive) EPZ, and (iii) the excess supply of non-tradables created, which in turn has an adverse valuation effect via a real internal depreciation. Strong backward linkages, however, may under certain conditions help offset the adverse impact through a favorable valuation effect.