Do rising interest rates matter for bank profitability? Evidence from Portuguese banks

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the profitability determinants of seventeen banks operating in Portugal from 2013 to 2023. The banking market has changed significantly, particularly since 2021, when Euribor grew rapidly to control inflation target. Methodologically, a hypothetical-deductive approach was used based on panel data collected from banks' published accounts. To generate results, grouped ordinary least squares were applied, as the Breusch-Pagan test confirms homoscedasticity, an essential assumption in this regression model. Internal variables considered include credit quality, capital adequacy, management quality, financial margin, and bank size, alongside an external variable, the Euribor. The findings reveal that credit risk, capital adequacy, management capacity, and Euribor are the most statistically significant for both return on equity and return on assets, with Euribor emerging as the greatest statistically significant variable. The analysis of Euribor as an explanatory variable represents the key contribution of this study relative to the existing and reviewed literature.