Do multiple temperature measurements improve temperature-based death time estimation? The information degradation inequality.

Abstract

The accuracy of the input parameter values limits the accuracy of the output values in forensic temperature-based death time estimation (TDE) like in many scientific methods. A standard strategy to overcome this problem is to perform multiple measurements of the input parameter values, but such approaches are subject to noise accumulation and stochastic dependencies. A quantitative mathematical analysis of advantages as well as disadvantages of multiple measurements approaches (MMAs) was performed. The results are A general stochastic model of MMA. The information degradation inequality quantifying gains and losses of MMAs. Example calculations of the information degradation inequality for the following two MMAs relevant to TDE: o Multiple successive rectal temperature measurements o Multiple synchronous body layer temperature measurements Neither multiple successive rectal temperature measurements nor multiple synchronous body layer temperature measurements seem to significantly improve death time estimation. MMAs are superior to the single measurement approach only in the very early body cooling phase.