Do Men's Characteristics Affect Whether a Nonmarital Pregnancy Results in Marriage?

Abstract

A decline in the likelihood that a nonmarital pregnancy results in marriage has contributed to the dramatic rise in the nonmarital birth ratio since the 1960s in the United States. This study examines the effect of men's characteristics on whether they marry in the event of a nonmarital pregnancy and whether changes in average characteristics and in the effect of men's characteristics have contributed to the decline in the probability of legitimation. The results indicate that the characteristics associated with the probability of marriage differ for Whites and Blacks. Changes over time in men's behavior and in men's average characteristics appear to have lowered the probability, of legitimation among White men, but changes in men's behavior appear to have contributed to the decline in legitimation among Black men. Key Words: fathers, legitimation, nonmarital pregnancy, marriage. Between 1965 and 1989, the fraction of first births conceived outside marriage that led to marriage before birth fell from about 52% to 27% (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1991). During the same period, the nonmarital birth ratio, or the fraction of all births occurring to unmarried women, rose from almost 8% to more than 27% (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1992). Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz (1996) estimate that the decline in shotgun accounts for about three fourths of the increase in the nonmarital fraction of first births to White women during this period and for about three fifths of the increase among Black women. The fall in the probability that a nonmarital pregnancy leads to marriage and the accompanying rise in the nonmarital birth ratio are of social concern if nonmarital births have adverse consequences for mothers and their children. Changes in attitudes, economic opportunities, and welfare policy may have contributed to the decline in the likelihood that a nonmarital pregnancy leads to marriage. Studies have examined the effect of such factors on whether a woman marries in the event of a nonmarital pregnancy (Lundberg & Plotnick, 1995; Parnell, Swicegood, & Stevens, 1994; Plotnick, 1992), but relatively less attention has focused on men's role in legitimation (Marsiglio, 1987). This study examines whether men's education, employment status, and other characteristics affect the likelihood of legitimation, given a nonmarital conception that results in a live birth. The data, which are self-reported, are from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth and include births from 1967-1990. The data are also used to test whether changes over time in men's average characteristics or behavior have contributed to the decline in marriages during this period, and a subsample of the data is used to examine whether welfare benefits appear to affect the probability that a man marries in the event of a nonmarital pregnancy. BACKGROUND Changes in men's economic opportunities may have contributed to the decline in the likelihood of legitimation and, more generally, the rise in the nonmarital birth ratio. Wilson and Neckerman (1986), for example, argue that the rise in the nonmarital birth ratio among Blacks is primarily due to male joblessness. They contend that Black women face a shrinking pool of marriageable men because of rising rates of nonemployment and falling real earnings among Black men. Consistent with this hypothesis, the nonmarital birth ratio among Black women in an area is positively associated with the fraction of men in that area who are not employed and negatively associated with average male earnings (South & Lloyd, 1992a, 1992b). These relationships also hold for White women. In addition, improved economic opportunities for women may have contributed to the decline in legitimation and the rise in nonmarital births. Women's average earnings are positively associated with the nonmarital birth ratio in an area for both Whites and Blacks (South & Lloyd, 1992b). Research using individual-level data also finds a relationship between men's economic opportunities and nonmarital births. …