Distribution and status of reptile species in south-eastern Zimbabwe

Biodiversity loss due to changes in climate and land use has been assessed recently. The earliest biodiversity assessments already showed that species are declining faster than at any time in the past and that ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating. Moreover, these assessments indicated that the projected changes in climate and land use likely drive further biodiversity losses in the 21st century, both directly and in synergy with each other. This accumulated evidence positions climate change and land-use change among the major human-induced direct drivers of biodiversity loss. Climate change affects biodiversity as climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, largely determine the geographical distributions of species. Hence, in areas where climate is less suitable, species shift their geographical ranges and go extinct locally. Land-use change poses immediate threats to biodiversity as the conversion of natural habitats (e.g. forests, wetlands and grasslands) into agricultural land results in populations decline and extinctions become more likely. These adverse effects consequently change ecosystems functioning and potentially affect the supply of ecosystems services and thus human well-being. Although research on climate and land-use change impacts on biodiversity and the consequent implications was repeatedly conducted, the range of estimates for these impacts remains disturbingly large. Moreover, such research relied on climate-change scenarios that depict relatively small increases in global mean temperatures (i.e. <2°C). Nowadays, the plausibility of climate-change scenarios which overshoot the 2°C policy target from The Paris Agreement, is rapidly increasing. Advances are thus needed to better understand how biodiversity will respond to such larger changes, including quantifications of the expected biodiversity decline at different climate and land-use change levels, and the effect derived from interaction mechanisms between these drivers. Furthermore, the global efforts to combat climate change and to keep global average temperature to well-below 2°C will require large mitigation commitments from the land sector with potentially both positive and negative consequences for biodiversity. These implications of land-based mitigation efforts have to be further assessed. My PhD thesis therefore aimed to explore future biodiversity trends under projected direct and synergistic changes in climate and land use and to advance understanding of climate-change mitigation consequences for biodiversity. In this thesis, climate change was indicated by global mean temperature increase (°C) and land-use change by land-use intensity levels (i.e. grazing and cropland levels) and land-cover type transitions. In Chapter 2, I assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by systematically reviewing studies and performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. I proposed two indicators to quantify the local response of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change: the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable habitat for each species. The FRS and FRA calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and both they indicate biodiversity intactness. The biodiversity response was quantified for different intervals of global mean temperature increase and for different taxonomic groups and ecosystems. The results showed that projected climate-change impacts likely cause changes to the distribution of many plants and animals and this leads to severe range contractions and local extinction of some species (i.e. decreasing biodiversity). The FRS and FRA were projected to gradually decrease with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1°C and 2°C increases in global mean temperature, and 32% and 54% beyond 4°C increase. This chapter showed that already at moderate temperature increases the original biodiversity significant decreased. In Chapter 3, I estimated biodiversity decline from changes in climate and land use in grassland ecosystems, which are among the most extensive ecosystems in the world. The analysis was conducted in the Central Asian grasslands, which are nowadays transforming by changes in land use and climate. I used a scenario analysis based on the latest Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e. SSP-RCP scenario framework) and further detail land-use scenarios for the region. I selected contrasting socio-economic and climate conditions (i.e. SSP1-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP8.5, SSP4-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5). In this analysis, the climate-change impact for the selected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was indicated by the FRS for grasslands as estimated in Chapter 2; the land-use change impact was indicated by changes in land-use intensity derived from the land-use scenarios; and the future biodiversity was indicated by the Mean Species Abundance (MSA). The MSA expresses the mean abundance of originally occurring species in disturbed conditions (e.g. after climate change) relative to their original abundance in undisturbed habitats. The contrasting scenario combinations showed that grasslands’ biodiversity remained under continuous threat and will further decline under each scenario. The strongest impact on biodiversity was projected in SSP5-RCP8.5, where half of the grasslands will likely undergo a large decrease in their species abundance by 2100. This chapter stressed the potential vulnerability of the Central Asian grasslands to increasing land-use intensity and climate change. In Chapter 4, I explored interaction mechanisms between climate and land-use change effects on biodiversity. Climate change and land-use change are often addressed as drivers that interact synergistically in several ways and alter their mutual effects on biodiversity. I identified interaction mechanisms in which species in heavily modified landscapes may respond differently to climate change than species in pristine landscapes. These interactions arise if 1) species adapted to modified landscapes differ in their sensitivity to climate change from species adapted to natural landscapes and if 2) land-use composition restricts climate-change induced dispersal of species in fragmented landscapes. To verify these conditions, I performed systematic reviews and a meta-analysis of bioclimatic studies on species distributions in landscapes with varying proportions of cropland (first condition) and species’ dispersal under climate change in fragmented landscapes (second condition). I used the FRS as the effect-size metric in this meta-analysis. Based on the results of this analysis, I found no significant interaction effect for the first condition. This indicates that the influence of global mean temperature increase on the FRS did not change with different cropland levels. No quantitative studies were found to verify the second condition for climate-change induced dispersal of species. This chapter emphasized the need to assess interactions between land-use and climate-change effects on biodiversity, integrating other conditions, such as spatial location, adaptive capacity and time lags. In Chapter 5, I assessed carbon-dioxide-removal options in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors (i.e. land-based mitigation options) implemented in different mitigation pathways that keep global temperature increase to well-below 2°C for their biodiversity impacts using the MSA indicator. Land-based mitigation options may preserve, increase or deteriorate biodiversity, because of their land-use impact. In this chapter, I reviewed climate change mitigation studies that assessed each of the selected land-based mitigation options and indicated the land transition needed to achieve a significant climate change mitigation (i.e. potential land-cover and/or land-use change). I found that reforestation of cultivated and managed areas together with restoration of wetlands deliver the largest increase of MSA, if provided the opportunity to reach mature states over time. Contrary, intensification of agricultural areas and bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration decreased MSA locally. Options such as afforestation and reduced deforestation, either positively or negatively affect MSA. This depends on their spatial implementation and the precise forest conservation schemes. This chapter provided insights on possible synergies that emerge from certain scenarios and their benefits for current and future biodiversity conservation in regions with large land-based mitigation potential. My PhD thesis advanced scientific understanding of climate and land-use change impacts on biodiversity that can feed into the current UN Conventions on Biological Diversity and Climate Change agendas. It showed future biodiversity trends and proposed methods that translate relevant information of socio-economic and climate-change drivers to assess interactions between climate and land-use change effects on biodiversity. Such knowledge is quickly becoming an important element to develop strategies for regional and global biodiversity conservation and thus to minimize biodiversity loss. I stress the importance of holding climate change well-below 2°C as this helps to maintain the composition of local communities and their climatically suitable areas, while seeking for the desired combinations that will reduce the use of detrimental land-based mitigation options to biodiversity.

(ProQuest: ... denotes non-US-ASCII text omitted.)IntroductionAlthough it is known that the agrarian transformation in Northeast Thailand has resulted in major changes in land use in the region, including a decline in the area of natural forest due to the expansion of cash crops and the conversion of agricultural land into the new housing estates that surround the region's rapidly expanding urban centers, detailed empirical studies on the nature and causes of land use changes in specific areas are lacking. Therefore, the present study was carried out in order to describe recent changes in agricultural land use and identify the factors influencing these changes in two districts along the bank of the Mekong River in Nakhon Phanom Province. This area is of particular interest because it is characterized by more fertile soil and a higher amount of rainfall than is typical in Northeast Thailand. It also borders the Lao People's Democratic Republic, to which it has been linked by the Third Friendship Bridge between Nakhon Phanom and Khammouane Provinces, which was officially opened on November 11, 2011. This and other transportation links, which are being built in the context of the Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Corridor and ASEAN Economic Community, may be influencing changes in land use in the area.MethodologyResearch SiteThis study was conducted in Mueang and That Phanom Districts in Nakhon Phanom Province (coordinates: Upper left 17.99N, 103.96E, Upper right 17.99N, 104.86E, Lower left 16.70N, 103.96E, and Lower right 16.70N, 104.86E) in the valley of the Mekong River (Fig. 1). Neighboring provinces (clockwise from the south) are Mukdahan, Sakon Nakhon, and Bueng Kan. In the northeast, the province borders Khammouane of Laos. The northern part of the province has both uplands and forest-covered plains and is drained by the Song Kram and the smaller Oun Rivers. The southern part is mostly flatland, with the Kum the only notable river. The provincial capital, the city of Nakhon Phanom, is located directly on the bank of the Mekong.Mueang Nakhon Phanom is the capital district of Nakhon Phanom Province. Mueang District is subdivided into 15 subdistricts (tambol), which are further subdivided into 169 villages (muban). The city of Nakhon Phanom (thesaban mueang) covers all of Nai Mueang and Nong Saeng Subdistricts as well as parts of At Samat and Nong Yat Subdistricts.That Phanom District is in the southern part of Nakhon Phanom Province. The district is named after Wat Phra That Phanom, the most important Buddhist temple in the region. The district is divided into 12 subdistricts, which are further subdivided into 142 villages. That Phanom Municipality covers parts of That Phanom and That Phanom Nuea Subdistricts.Data SourcesLand use maps for 2006 and 2010 of both districts were obtained in shapefile format from Land Development Department Office 4 in Ubon Ratchatani. These maps were made from unclouded and terrain corrected Landsat images in 2006 and 2010. Image processing and data manipulation were conducted using ERDAS IMAGINE 8.6 and ArcGIS 9.1. A handheld Garmin GPS eTrex HC (12-15 m accuracy) was used to obtain the coordinates of plots with different types of land uses. Some ancillary data were also used as references in image processing (Land Development Department 2010).Information on the causes of some important types of land use changes in several localities was collected from local officials and farmers by holding focus groups. This was done after the changes in land use were analyzed and several problematic types of change were identified, especially conversion of paddy fields to forests and vice versa.Method of AnalysisSpatial analysis employing the Decision Support System Research and Development Network for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management (DSSARM)4 Program was used to identify all plots that had been converted from one land use to a different one between 2006 and 2010. …

Transformational changes after 1989 were primarily caused by major social changes, including those in the economy and agriculture. Slovakia is also affect by globalization processes. The aim of this article is to characterize the changes in agricultural land use and their spatial distribution in relation to the political transformation of society after 1989, using the Dunajská Streda, Levice, Prievidza and Stará Ľubovňa districts as examples. These districts contain all individual agricultural production types in Slovakia. Changes in agricultural land use were analyzed on the basis of the total areas of land use categories for these districts between 1980 and 2010 and for municipal cadastral areas in selected districts between 2000 and 2010. Two basic indicators of changes in land use were selected for this purpose. The first was the percentage increase or decrease in individual land use categories and the second was the dominant processes in land use based on analysis of the main landscape processes. The cumulative surfaces of selected crops and their products were analyzed using a simple continuous diagram depicting the course of harvesting areas between 1980 and 2010. Crop yields were analyzed by linear regression. The tendency for disappearance of agricultural land use was confirmed in the less agriculturally active areas of Slovakia. This decrease in agricultural land use was at the expense of an increase in urban areas and in the processes of greening, forestation and water body construction.

European blue and green infrastructure network strategy vs. the common agricultural policy. Insights from an integrated case study (Couesnon, Brittany)

Telecoupled land-use changes in distant countries

Which sustainability objectives are difficult to achieve? The mid-term evaluation of predicted scenarios in remote mountain agricultural landscapes in Slovakia

The mendong plant is one of the plants that is widely cultivated by people in Blayu Village, Wajak District. However, the number of farmers cultivating mendong plants is decreasing, so the agricultural land for mendong plants is starting to decrease. This research aims to: 1) analyze changes in land use for mendong crop farming in Blayu Village; and 2) know the factors that cause changes in agricultural land use for mendong crops. This research uses a descriptive survey method by collecting several samples in the form of people through questions. Google Earth was used to analyze changes in the use of agricultural land for mendong crops in Blayu Village from 2010 to 2024. Based on the results of the analysis of changes in agricultural land use for mendong crops in Blayu Village in 2010-2024, an increase in changes in the area of ​​mendong crops was obtained by 26.45 ha or 91.4 %. Meanwhile, the factors causing changes in the use of agricultural land for mendong plants in Blayu Village are economic factors, labor, mendong craftsmen, and the availability of mendong plant drying equipment.

Under the effects of saltwater intrusion from rising sea water levels, climate change, and socioeconomic issues, the Nga Nam district in Vietnam has suffered damage to its agriculture and changes in agricultural land use. This study aimed to investigate the factors that influenced land use changes and to propose approaches to limit the changes in agricultural land use. The damage caused by saltwater intrusion on agricultural production was evaluated via the use of secondary data collected from the Department of Infrastructure Economics of the Nga Nam district in the period of 2010–2021. The results show that during the 2010–2015 period, agricultural production areas were affected in 2010, 2012, and 2015. In the period of 2015–2021, the trend of saltwater intrusion along the damaged area remarkably decreased due to the work of saltwater-preventing structures. In this period, the area of annual plants increased, while that of fruit trees decreased. In the area comprising annual plants, the area using the triple rice land use type converted into an area using the double rice and double rice–fish ones. Lands for fruit trees transitioned from mixed farming to specialized farming to raise the economic efficiency for farmers. These changes were affected by four main factors: the physical factor, the economy, society, and the environment. The environmental and economic factors were seen to play the most important role as drivers of changes in land use. The factors of saltwater intrusion and acid-sulfate-contaminated soil, consumer markets, floods, drought, profit, and investments were noted to be significant drivers in agricultural land use change. Thus, both structural and non-structural approaches are suggested to inhibit the safeguard changes in the future.

Expansion and intensification of row crop agriculture in the Pampas and Espinal of Argentina can reduce ecosystem service provision by changing avian density

Rapid development has an impact on increasing land use change. The establishment of South Buton Regency in 2014 triggered an increase in development in Batauga District which resulted in the expansion of built-up land and changes agricultural land use. Changes in agricultural land use will affect agricultural productivity, especially leading commodities. This study aims to: (1) determine changes in agricultural land use in Batauga District due to the establishment of South Buton Regency; (2) know the impact of changes in agricultural land use on leading commodities. This study uses quantitative descriptive analysis methods and OBIA. The results of this study include: (1) Changes in agricultural land use due to the formation of South Buton Regency have changed from 3,119.26 acre previously to 2,971.64 acre in 2021; (2) Impact of changes in the use of agricultural land on superior commodities, namely commodities before formation become a base then become non-base after the formation of South Buton Regency and vice versa.. Keywords: Land Use Change, Agriculture, Leading Commodity

Simulated impact of past and possible future land use changes on the hydrological response of the Northern German lowland ‘Hunte’ catchment

Bagik Polak Village is located in Labuapi District, West Lombok Regency. Its area is 2.50 km2 with 7 sub-villages and a population of 4,232 people and a population density of 1,693 people/km2. Geographically, Bagik Polak is located at coordinates 8037'39" S 116007'57" E. Agricultural activities such as planting rice, corn, horticulture, and livestock, are mostly carried out by the community to meet the needs of life. However, in the last 10 years, there has been a change in the function of agricultural land to non-agricultural land. An increase in population causes this, the dynamics of development and industrial development, which require space, so it has implications for changes in land use. The purpose of this study is to analyze changes in rice crop production based on land use changes in Bagik Polak Village from 2012 to 2022. The method used in this study is the evaluative descriptive method. Data processing and analysis is carried out using ArcGis 10.8, while the stages include geometric correction, image interpretation, calculating the digitized area and field observation. The data used are Google Earth Pro satellite imagery data from 2012-2022 and rice crop production data from 2012-2022. The analysis results show that changes in the use of agricultural land into settlements and housing are the most significant changes. In 2012 the area of agricultural land was 189.51 Ha with rice production of 11.867813 quintals. However, in 2022, the area of agricultural land decreased to 168.32 Ha with rice production of 11.571725 quintals. The average rate of shrinkage of rice crop production is -0.854782108. The land conversion is the main factor causing the decline in rice crop production in Bagik Polak Village. A correlation was found between changes in agricultural land use and a decrease in rice production in Bagik Polak Village, where changes in land use were directly proportional to a decrease in rice production

Earth’s soils and the global carbon (C) cycle have been profoundly affected by agriculture. Agricultural land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) date back to the early Holocene ~12,000 years ago when hunter-gatherers in the Fertile Crescent region of the eastern Mediterranean began using agricultural practices to manage soils. Since then, agriculture has spread across the globe and is now the dominant global land use with about 40% of the ice-free land area covered by croplands and grasslands. Especially, clearing of natural vegetation to make room for cultivating crops has released up to one-third of the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock from the top meter of soil. However, effects on the soil inorganic carbon (SIC) stock continue to be overlooked. Further, methane (CH4) is produced in anaerobic environments under agricultural practices, such as the sediments of wetlands, peatlands, and rice (Oryza sativa L.) paddies as well as by livestock production. Globally, up to 357 Pg (1 Pg = 1 Gt = 1015g) C pre-1850 and 168 Pg C post-1850 may have been released by agricultural land-use changes. To 2 m depth, about 133 Pg SOC may have been lost since the early Holocene. LULCC emissions from 1850 to 2015 have been estimated at 98.4 and 16.3 Pg C for crop and pasture land uses, respectively. This net C release together with emissions of CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O) has contributed to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and accelerating climate change. Climate change interferes with agriculture with severe negative effects. Thus, climate change adaptation and mitigation are necessary to sustainably intensify production amidst the increasing challenge of satisfying the demands for food, feed, fiber, and fuel of a growing, more affluent, and more animal products consuming population. Food-related GHG emissions are lower for plant-based diets. Improved soil management in agroecosystems can substantially reduce GHG emissions and sequester some of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as SOC and oxidize some of its CH4. Additional benefits of agroecosystems with increased SOC stocks are more healthy and resilient soils. The hidden treasure of SOC has finally been recognized by policymakers. For example, to help address food security and climate change issues, the 4 per Thousand Initiative (4p1000) was proposed in December 2015 at COP21 in Paris to enhance the soil C stock on a large portion of the world’s managed soils by an average annual increase of 0.4% in 0–40 cm depth.

Habitat Loss, the Dynamics of Biodiversity, and a Perspective on Conservation

Protected areas are one of the main tools for halting the continuing global biodiversity crisis caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and other anthropogenic pressures. According to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the protected area network should be expanded to at least 17% of the terrestrial world by 2020 (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). To maximize conservation outcomes, it is crucial to identify the best expansion areas. Here we show that there is a very high potential to increase protection of ecoregions and vertebrate species by expanding the protected area network, but also identify considerable risk of ineffective outcomes due to land-use change and uncoordinated actions between countries. We use distribution data for 24,757 terrestrial vertebrates assessed under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 'red list of threatened species', and terrestrial ecoregions (827), modified by land-use models for the present and 2040, and introduce techniques for global and balanced spatial conservation prioritization. First, we show that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple. Second, if projected land-use change by 2040 (ref. 11) takes place, it becomes infeasible to reach the currently possible protection levels, and over 1,000 threatened species would lose more than 50% of their present effective ranges worldwide. Third, we demonstrate a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities. Strong evidence is shown that further biodiversity loss is unavoidable unless international action is quickly taken to balance land-use and biodiversity conservation. The approach used here can serve as a framework for repeatable and quantitative assessment of efficiency, gaps and expansion of the global protected area network globally, regionally and nationally, considering current and projected land-use pressures.