Distressed Aircraft Recovery Technique Algorithms with Probabilistic Dynamic Safety Metrics

Abstract

This paper details the newly developed novel probabilistic safety metrics to be used in determining safe flight paths dynamically following an in-flight distress event. These new safety metrics consider all possible paths to landing sites within reach and includes probability of rescue safety. Probabilities for three phases of the mission are analyzed: enroute, touchdown/rollout and evacuation/rescue. Two statistical components of the safety metrics are defined: the measure of the safety of the in-flight path and weighting of the outcomes. The Weibull distribution function is used to collapse the entire abort decision model and random decision variables. The path safety formulation is developed and solved using numerical optimization techniques. It can also predict the effects due to any change to planned landing site dynamically. Two realistic case studies one from the West and the other from the East coast are simulated using these formulations. Results show that the nearest landing sites are not always the safest ones showing the benefits of this newly developed safety metric. The path safety levels are plotted as a function of mission safety probability values using innovative polar plots that provide useful information to pilots.