Distinguishing the relative contributions of climate and land use/cover changes to ecosystem services from a geospatial perspective

Abstract

Understanding impacts of land use/cover (LULC) and climate change ecosystem services (ESs) is critical to human well-being. However, existing studies seldom determined the relative contributions of LULC and climate change to ESs from a geospatial perspective, and the impacts of different LULC conversions on ESs remain unclear. This study established a framework for distinguishing the relative spatial contributions of climate and LULC change to water yield, net primary productivity (NPP) and soil retention and applied it to Zhejiang Province. The results showed that all ESs showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020. Changes in water yield and soil retention were dominated by climate change, accounting for 75.22% and 77.69% of the total study area, respectively, while the changes in NPP were dominated by LULC changes, accounting for 82.70% of the total study area. We further quantified the impact of three major forms of LULC changes (urbanization, deforestation, and afforestation) on ESs in their respective regions. Deforestation and urbanization reduced NPP by 192 gC/m2 and 115.75 gC/m2, respectively, while afforestation increased NPP by 220.10 gC/m2. Afforestation reduced the water yield by 84.27%, while deforestation and urbanization increased it by 37.94% and 62.42%, respectively. Deforestation reduced soil retention by 38.28%, while urbanization and afforestation increased it by 3.91% and 63.28%, respectively. Five suggestions for improving ES management were proposed based on our results. This study can provide a detailed reference for decision-makers seeking sustainable ecosystem management strategies.