Dissecting the tail: assessing global drivers of French sustainable markets

The increase in global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), volatility or stock market uncertainty (VIX), and geopolitical risk (GPR) has affected gold prices (GD), crude oil prices (WTI), and stock markets, which present challenges for investors. Sustainable stock investments in emerging markets may minimize and diversify investor risk. We applied the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to examine the effects of EPU, VIX, GPR, GD, and WTI on sustainable stocks in seven emerging markets (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, and South Korea) from January 2012 to June 2023. EPU, VIX, GPR, GD, and WTI showed non-linear cointegration with sustainable stocks in seven emerging markets and possessed different asymmetric effects in the short and long run. Change in EPU increases the return of Thailand’s sustainable stock in the long run. The long-run GPR only affects the return of Indonesian sustainable stock. All sustainable stocks are negatively affected by the VIX and positively affected by GD in the short and long run. Additionally, long-run WTI negatively affects the return of Indonesia’s sustainable stocks. Our findings contribute to rational investment decisions on sustainable stocks, including gold and crude oil prices, to hedge the asymmetric effect of uncertainty.

The varying impact of financial development on the environmental footprint due to geopolitical risk: The difference between high- and middle-income countries

Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress

Geopolitical risks and conflicts wield substantial influence on the global economy and financial markets, fostering uncertainty and volatility. This study investigates the intricate relationship between gold and representatives of green and sustainable stocks in the US and EU during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, employing multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) and nonlinear Granger causality. MF-DCCA reveals significant multifractal properties and nonlinear cross-correlations across all time series pairs. Notably, conflict weakened the multifractal cross-correlations between US stocks and gold, except for the TESLA/gold pair. A similar significant change in the EU market’s multifractal properties was observed during the conflict. In conjunction with MF-DCCA, Granger causality tests indicate bidirectional nonlinear relationships between gold and green/sustainable stock markets in the USA and EU. Gold’s past movements significantly influence changes in all the considered green and sustainable stocks, enabling predictions of their behavior. These findings shed light on multifractal dynamics during geopolitical crises and emphasize the bidirectional relationships between gold and green and sustainable stock markets. This comprehensive analysis informs investors and policy makers, enhancing their understanding of financial market behavior amid geopolitical instability.

Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach

In this study, the vector autoregression (VAR) model framework is enhanced by the incorporation of nonlinear effects. More specifically, this study employs a nonlinear VAR model for the post-global financial crisis (GFC) period, and thus, the impacts of the geopolitical risk on oil futures and volatility are discussed for Israel, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. It is found that an increase in geopolitical risk will lead to an increase in oil futures, whereas the geopolitical risk changes in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey measured by 1, 2, 4, and 10 standard deviation shocks have higher impacts than that of Russia. In the case of Israel, it is revealed that the rise in geopolitical risk may lead to a steady upward trend in oil futures by reducing oil price volatility. Our study highlights the role of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in oil prices, and it is suggested that the geopolitical risks of all countries may have symmetrical effects on oil futures. The impact of country-specific geopolitical risk shocks on oil price volatility can be considered asymmetric, and the responses are size-dependent. In this respect, we also show that the global geopolitical risk benchmark index may have an asymmetric impact on oil price volatility.KeywordsOil futuresOil price volatilityGeopolitical riskAsymmetryCensored VAR

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and gold price bubbles to determine whether rising GPR can drive deviations in the fundamental value of gold, thus leading to speculative bubbles.Design/methodology/approachUsing a data set that spans from January 2002 to December 2023 and covers both GPR data and gold price data, this study applies the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model to identify gold price bubbles. The analysis explores the effects of GPR and its sub-indices – geopolitical risk–acts (GPRA) and geopolitical risk–threats (GPRT) – on gold price bubbles. The causal relationships are examined through logistic regression, Tobit modelling and machine learning, with a focus on different countries, including major gold producers and consumers.FindingsThe results indicate a significant relationship between GPR and gold price bubbles, particularly with GPRA, which exerts a stronger influence than GPRT does. Peaks in GPR often align with the formation of gold price bubbles, both positive and negative. Additionally, geopolitical instability in Russia has a significant effect on US gold price bubbles.Practical implicationsThe findings provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers by emphasizing the importance of GPR in shaping gold price dynamics. Investors are advised to consider the nuanced roles of GPRA and GPRT when using gold as a hedge during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.Social implicationsUnderstanding the role of GPR in gold price bubbles can help mitigate the financial risk associated with speculative bubbles, thereby offering a better framework for managing assets during geopolitical crises.Originality/valueThis study extends existing research by directly linking GPR with gold price bubbles via the LPPLS model, with a novel emphasis on the differentiation between GPRA and GPRT, providing new perspectives on the safe-haven role of gold during geopolitical uncertainty.

PurposeThis paper aims to study the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on corporate cost of debt and the moderating role of information asymmetry between creditors and borrowing firms.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses 5,223 firm-quarter observations on German-listed firms spanning 2010:Q1–2021:Q4. This study regresses the cost of debt financing on the geopolitical risk, accounting quality and other control variables. Information asymmetry is measured using the performance-matched Jones-model discretionary accrual and the stock bid-ask spread. It uses interaction terms to check if information asymmetry moderates the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debts and control for the moderating role of business risk. For the sake of robustness check, it uses long-term cost of debt and bond spread as alternative dependent variables. In addition, this study executes instrumental variables regression and propension score matching to control for potential endogeneity problems.FindingsEstimation results show that geopolitical uncertainty exerts a positive impact on the cost of debt. This impact is found to be more important on the cost of long-term debts. Information asymmetry is found to exacerbate the positive impact of geopolitical risk on the cost of debt. These results are robust to the change of the dependent variable and to the mitigation of potential endogeneity. At high levels of information asymmetry, this impact is more important for firms belonging to “Transportation”, “Automobiles and auto parts”, “Chemicals”, “Industrial and commercial services”, “Software and IT services” and “Industrial goods” business sectors.Research limitations/implicationsGeopolitical uncertainty should be seriously considered when setting strategies for corporate financial management in Germany and similar economies that are directly exposed to geopolitical risks. Corporate managers should design a comprehensive set of corporate policies to improve their transparency and accountability during increasing uncertainty. Policymakers are required to implement innovative monetary and fiscal policies that take into consideration the heterogeneous impact of geopolitical uncertainty and information transparency in order to contain their incidence on German business sectors.Originality/valueDespite its relevance to corporate financing conditions, little is known about the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt financing. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is still no empirical evidence on how information asymmetry between creditors and borrowing firms shapes the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt. This paper tries to fill this gap by interacting two measures of information asymmetry with geopolitical uncertainty. In contrast with previous studies, this study shows that the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt is non-linear and heterogeneous. The results show that the impact of geopolitical uncertainty does not exert the same impact on the cost of debt instruments with different maturities. This impact is found to be heterogeneous across business sectors and to depend on the level of information asymmetry.

PurposeThe politically unstable economies have high and volatile sovereign spread. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on sovereign bond yields.Design/methodology/approachThe sovereign yields at various maturities were decomposed into three factors, namely, level, slope and curvature, using the Dynamic Nelson Siegel model. The relationship between geopolitical uncertainty and the yield curve factors was examined using a quantile causality test.FindingsThe study found that at the extreme high-rate regime, geopolitical uncertainty causes the yield curve factors positively, indicating bond investors demand a higher return for geopolitical uncertainty. On the other hand, during extreme low-rate regime geopolitical causes the short- and medium-term factors negatively. The extreme low-rate regime indicates the period of economic slowdown. During this regime, the central banks try to reduce the short-term rates to stimulate growth.Originality/valueThis is one of the few papers that investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk and sovereign bond yields at the various maturities and interest rate regimes. Understanding the relationship between the geopolitical risk and short-term rates would help the central banks the efficacy of their policy actions. The long-term rates are influenced by the global investor preferences; examining the relationship with the long-term rates would help the investors frame the trading strategies.

The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns

This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.

This study examines the causality relationship between oil price movements and geopolitical risks for a group of 18 geopolitically sensitive countries, using monthly data by implementing all quantiles distributions. Contrary to earlier studies, which have applied the Granger‐causality through the conditional mean regression, this research estimates the association between the variables through Granger causality within quantiles. Evidence of a two‐way causality is found linking the changes in geopolitical risk and fluctuations in oil prices in the case of Thailand, Argentina, Israel, China, Mexico India, Korea, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Philippines, Venezuela, Ukraine, and others. In addition, it is confirmed that oil prices Granger cause geopolitical risks for the countries like Brazil, Malaysia, and Colombia. Furthermore, a one‐way causality direction is found from changes in geopolitical risk to shifts in oil prices in Russia and Saudi Arabia, which are observed as super oil rich states. This study findings highlight the importance of government policies and business strategies that aim at containing the effects of geopolitical risk and the resulting oil price movements.

In this study, spectral Granger causality analysis is employed to investigate the spectral dynamics of uncertainty transmission and its impact on economic growth and financial development in Saudi Arabia from 1993 to 2020. We examine the relationships between crude oil volatility, geopolitical risk, global economic uncertainty, financial development (measured by market capitalisation, MCGDP, Financial Institutions Access Index, FIAIX) and economic growth. The empirical results show that negative shocks in crude oil volatility have a significant impact on financial development as measured by the MCGDP, with capital flight and reduced domestic investment playing key roles, despite the effective contribution of increased government spending to mitigate these effects. In this study, spectral Granger causality analysis is employed to investigate the spectral dynamics of uncertainty transmission and its impact on economic growth and financial development in Saudi Arabia from 1993 to 2020. We examine the relationships between crude oil volatility, geopolitical risk, global economic uncertainty, financial development (measured by market capitalisation, MCGDP, Financial Institutions Access Index, FIAIX) and economic growth. The empirical results show that negative shocks in crude oil volatility have a significant impact on financial development as measured by MCGDP, with capital flight and lower domestic investment playing a key role, despite the effective contribution of increased government spending in mitigating these effects. However, looking at the FIAIX, crude oil volatility has a different impact, with positive shocks having no significant impact on financial development. In contrast, negative shocks show long-term causal effects, which emphasises the vulnerability of the banking sector to oil price fluctuations. Geopolitical risk has a significant long-term impact on the MCGDP due to uncertainty shocks caused by regional and global geopolitical measures. For geopolitical risk, the results are mixed with a significant causality of negative shocks on the FIAIX over certain frequencies, emphasising the sensitivity of the banking sector to geopolitical tensions. In contrast, the world economic uncertainty has only a limited direct impact on the FIAIX, indicating the resilience of the Saudi financial sector to fluctuations in global uncertainty. In terms of economic growth, positive shocks have a greater impact than negative shocks due to the volatility of crude oil. However, shocks resulting from geopolitical risks, whether positive or negative, have little effect on economic growth. The industrial production index, a measure of the resilience of the Saudi economy, indicates that it is susceptible to positive shocks from fluctuations in oil prices over a range of time periods. Our study’s findings can assist Saudi Arabia’s authorities in fortifying the country’s financial and economic resilience against the spread of uncertainty. For strong financial development and sustainable economic growth, these uncertainty elements must be well monitored.

This study contributes to evaluate capital market performances categorized as sustainable stocks in Indonesia. The aim of the proposed model is to examine the impact of the Consumer Price Index, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, and Global Gold Prices on the SRI-KEHATI Index. The study will cover the study period from January 2017 to December 2022. The ARDL approach is employed to see impacts in both long-term and short-term. The findings indicate that in the short run, the variables Consumer Price Index and Geopolitical Risk have a notable positive impact on the SRI-KEHATI Index, while World Gold Prices have a substantial negative impact. However, the variable Economic Policy Uncertainty does not have a significant effect on the SRI-KEHATI Index. In addition, over an extended period of time, the variables of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk exhibit a notable and constructive impact on the SRI-KEHATI Index. Compared to the long-term impact of the Consumer Price Index on Gold Prices is negligible.

Research aims: The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of four cultural dimensions such as power distance index (PDI), individualism (IDV), uncertainty avoidance index (UAI), and long-term orientation (LTO) on the sustainable investment return in Asian sustainable stock exchanges.Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research method was applied for this research. Monthly sustainable stock indices from seven Asian countries for the period 2015-2019 were considered. This research employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) regression with id and time fixed effect.Research findings: The outcomes of our empirical investigation underlined the fact that: (i) an increase in power distance (PDI) would increase the market returns in the Asian region; (ii) individualism (IDV) had a positive and significant impact on the market returns, and the increase of individualism in the Asian countries would lead to the higher sustainable stock returns; (iii) increase in the uncertainty of avoidance (UAI) by investors in the Asian region would lead to the higher stock returns; (iv) the long term orientation (LTO) had a significant and positive impact on market returns. It showed that if the investor had a long-term orientation on the sustainable stock exchange in the Asian region, it would lead to increased stock returns.Theoretical contribution/Originality: This research's theoretical contribution is to present the causal relations of cultural differences on the sustainable investment return in the Asian region.Practitioner/Policy implication: This research’s implication is to increase the concern of individual investors, portfolio managers, and investment companies regarding the cultural dimension effect on sustainable investment.Research limitation/Implication: The limitations still exist in this research, such as: (1) limited data for sustainable stock indices in the Asian region; (2) this research mainly focused on four cultural dimensions instead of six dimensions in Hofstede's model; (3) the future research should include the control variables and some other financial variables related with the sustainable investment.