Abstract
The impact of rapid predator-prey coevolution on predator-prey dynamics remains poorly understood, as previous modelling studies have given rise to contradictory conclusions and predictions. Interpreting and reconciling these contradictions has been challenging due to the inherent complexity of model dynamics, defying mathematical analysis and mechanistic understanding. We develop a new approach here, based on the Geber method for deconstructing eco-evolutionary dynamics, for gaining such understanding. We apply this approach to a co-evolutionary predator-prey model to disentangle the processes leading to either antiphase or ¼-lag cycles. Our analysis reveals how the predator-prey phase relationship is driven by the temporal synchronization between prey biomass and defense dynamics. We further show when and how prey biomass and trait dynamics become synchronized, resulting in antiphase cycles, allowing us to explain and reconcile previous modelling and empirical predictions. The successful application of our proposed approach provides an important step towards a comprehensive theory on eco-evolutionary feedbacks in predator-prey systems.
Highlights
Evolutionary change can occur on ecological timescales[1,2,3], resulting in the complex feedbacks of eco-evolutionary dynamics[4,5]
Modelling studies on coevolution revealed a wide range of possible predator-prey dynamics; these include the antiphase cycles found in models on prey evolution[18,19], and in-phase or reversed cycles[18,19,20,21]
Predictions on when any of these dynamics should be found are contradictory: for example, antiphase cycles could only occur when predator adaptation was slow compared to ecological dynamics[22], or slower than prey adaptation[18], while they were found for extremely fast predator adaptation in others[20,21]
Summary
Evolutionary change can occur on ecological timescales[1,2,3], resulting in the complex feedbacks of eco-evolutionary dynamics[4,5]. The main challenge in developing a comprehensive theory lies in the complexity of model dynamics, with ecological and evolutionary changes on two trophic levels all interacting simultaneously. As such models are not analytically tractable, study is generally limited to numerical simulations, which to some extent form a black box yielding results that are difficult to disentangle and interpret. Previous attempts to reduce model complexity have used a separation between ecological and evolutionary timescales, assuming either that evolutionary dynamics are much slower than ecological dynamics[23], or the reverse, that evolutionary dynamics are more rapid[17,21] This removes real-time interactions between ecological and evolutionary dynamics, resulting in a more analytically tractable model. Of eco-evolutionary dynamics: that ecological and evolutionary processes are fundamentally entwined and occur at the same timescales[1,5]
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