Difficulties of Explorationests in decision making under complex constraints of Technical/Economical and Geopolitical environment of risk and uncertainties

Abstract

The ultimate objective of Explorationests and managerial head posts is to make the right decision of exploration and development plans under Technical (Engineering) , Economic and Geopolitical major environments.This decision must respond positively to the target of exaggerating the national reserve necessities and to replace that depleted or about depleted reservoirs or fields with the best efficiency. Thus, The task of a decision maker is in the beginning to evaluate the situation of the problem he has, where certainly falls in one or more of four cases: 1) Certain deterministic consequences 2)Risky of probabilistic consequences 3)Uncertainty of unknown consequence and 4)Conflict of consequences influenced by opponents. Explorationests or manager deeply has to deal with enormous numbers of unknown variables or parameters as more complex situations by more components of risk and uncertainties, particularly the 2nd and the 3rd categories. In both cases Explorationests must develop a criterion like reserve, profits as related to his objective, then applying either a simulation method or analytical approach to reduce the level of probabilities. The probability can be defined by what is called the Expected Value concept, which for Net Present value becomes (ENPV) , which in turn could be either: An event , where a product to be obtained by multiplying the occurrence(frequency)as an outcome by the condition worth value , or : As Decision Alternative , where the probability outcome that could occur, if the decision alternative is occurred . This definition hence, is the most important tool in decision making, while the most popular simulation technique to reduce probability level is what defined as Monte Carlos simulation. It tried to apply it in this work for the western flank of the Mesopotamia, where many exploratory targets of unknown variables assumed to deal with the concept of expected value EV as: a) joint, mutual exclusives probabilistic formula P(total)=P(Tech)*P(Eco)*P(Geopol), and, or: As similar case, but as a decision making alternatives, P(total)=Sum{P(Tech)+P(Eco)+P(Geopol)}.Results of this preliminary study are promising targets, but risky to some extent, thus it seems better to explore this major target, but not to develop it, at least now.