Development cycle and carrying capacity

Abstract

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to examine the development cycle of Brazilian banking sector during the lengthy period between 1889 and 2009, also identifying an equilibrium number of financial institutions based on the carrying capacity of the environment.Design/methodology/approach– The number of institutions in equilibrium is calculated based on the population density dependence model adopted under the organizational ecology theory. Quantitative data of founding and failure and qualitative data (interviews with the directors, officers and chief executive officers (CEOs) of selected companies) were used.Findings– In all three bank segments (commercial, investment and multiple), the total number of banks in operation on December 31, 2009 was below the carrying capacity. However, in the multiple bank segment, the gap between the actual and potential figures is slightly smaller. As indicated by the respondents, there is almost no room for newcomers in the major bank segments. In counterpart, there is still space for new arrivals in the mid-market bank sector.Research limitations/implications– The findings presented here may change, as carrying capacity is determined by political, legal and economic factors, including the availability of resources in niches and constraints imposed through laws, rules and other regulatory aspects. However, raising the life cycle of the entire population offers opportunities for future research on individual organizational trajectories, using new theoretical and methodological perspectives, such as dynamic capabilities and process theory.Practical implications– The main contribution of this paper lies in indicating the growth potential for banking institution populations in Brazil, and may be used not only by potential newcomers eager to enter the sector, but also as a tool for assessing anti-trust policies.Originality/value– The development cycle of Brazilian financial institution populations is unknown, and carrying capacity is a construct less explored by academic literature, particularly in Brazil. This is a unique study since a demography of an entire banking population in a developing country does not exist, besides there is not such a financial institution like the multiple bank in Brazil.