Development and validation of a model to predict the disease activity score: towards a remote treat-to-target approach for rheumatoid arthritis.
Remote monitoring of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) offers a promising solution to increasing healthcare demands. This study aimed to develop and validate a model using selected clinical and patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) items that efficiently and accurately reflect the original disease activity score (DAS). Data from 5802 visits of 612 patients with RA from the treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort and TApering strategies in RA trials were randomly split (1:1) into derivation and internal validation sets. An external validation was performed using 4404 visits from 1554 patients with RA from the Early Arthritis Cohort. A model was developed using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression that incorporated age, sex, disease duration, autoantibody status, and individual PROM items, including visual analogue scale (VAS) general health, all Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) items, VAS pain, and VAS fatigue, to predict the DAS. The model's ability to detect active disease (DAS >2.4) and remission (DAS <1.6) was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), along with sensitivity and specificity across predefined thresholds. The final model included 12 out of 28 predictors: age, sex, disease duration, VAS general health, 7 HAQ-DI items, and VAS pain. It showed excellent discriminative ability for detecting active disease with AUC-ROC values of 0.89 in both the development and internal validation sets, and 0.82 in the external validation set. For detecting remission, the AUC-ROC values were 0.86, 0.85, and 0.82, respectively. Test characteristics were provided for different thresholds. The proposed DAS intended for digital remote assessment combines clinical and PROM items and can accurately and efficiently distinguish between disease activity states in RA, supporting its potential use in remote monitoring in the future.
- # Disease Activity Score
- # Internal Validation Sets
- # Visual Analogue Scale Pain
- # Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort
- # Area Under The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Values
- # Least Absolute Shrinkage And Selection Operator
- # Area Under The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve
- # Rheumatoid Arthritis
- # Visual Analogue Scale
- # Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index
- Abstract
- 10.1136/annrheumdis-2024-eular.4172
- Jun 1, 2024
- Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
Background:Nowadays, numerous therapeutic options are available for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and the number of patients achieving remission has significantly increased. However, some patients have a disease defined by...
- Research Article
7
- 10.1080/03009742.2018.1551964
- Feb 13, 2019
- Scandinavian Journal of Rheumatology
Objective: The Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register has implemented an internet-based method (PER) for registering patient-recorded outcome measures. The aim of this study was to compare the agreement between visual analogue scales (VASs) reported via PER and clinic-based reporting using paper forms.Methods: In a cross-sectional study (70 patients), the results of 79 registrations of VASs for global health, pain, and fatigue from PER were compared with corresponding clinic-based paper registrations. For patients with polyarthritis, 28-joint count Disease Activity Scores (DAS28) were computed. Patients with axial disease also completed Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index and Functional Index (BASDAI and BASFI) questionnaires. Mean differences and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated. Agreement was visualized using Bland–Altman plots.Results: No statistically significant differences in VASs were found comparing PER and paper forms for VAS Global, VAS Pain, and VAS Fatigue (p = 0.295, 0.463, and 0.288, respectively). ICCs for VAS Global, Pain, and Fatigue ranged from 0.889 to 0.952, indicating excellent agreement. Bland–Altman plots for VAS did not show any proportional bias. The mean difference for DAS28 calculated by VASs from paper vs PER was −0.02 (n = 65, p = 0.660), and the mean difference for BASDAI was 0.04 (n = 11, p = 0.742). ICCs for DAS28 and BASDAI were 0.962 and 0.985, respectively. Of the participating patients, 60% preferred PER.Conclusion: Internet-based reporting for patient-reported outcomes in a clinical setting resulted in similar data for VASs and corresponding disease activity scores to clinic-based reporting on paper forms.
- Abstract
1
- 10.1136/annrheumdis-2023-eular.2604
- May 30, 2023
- Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
BackgroundRoutine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3) is a patient-reported outcome (PRO) that can be used to assess the condition of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients using only a questionnaire...
- Research Article
21
- 10.1007/s00296-016-3427-1
- Feb 6, 2016
- Rheumatology International
The aim of this study was to estimate the mapping model for EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) utility values using the health assessment questionnaire disability index (HAQ-DI), pain visual analog scale (VAS), and disease activity score in 28 joints (DAS28) in a large, nationwide cohort of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in Korea. The KORean Observational study Network for Arthritis (KORONA) registry data on 3557 patients with RA were used. Data were randomly divided into a modeling set (80% of the data) and a validation set (20% of the data). The ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit, and two-part model methods were employed to construct a model to map to the EQ-5D index. Using a combination of HAQ-DI, pain VAS, and DAS28, four model versions were examined. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the models, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were calculated using the validation dataset. A model that included HAQ-DI, pain VAS, and DAS28 produced the highest adjusted R (2) as well as the lowest Akaike information criterion, RMSE, and MAE, regardless of the statistical methods used in modeling set. The mapping equation of the OLS method is given as EQ-5D=0.95-0.21×HAQ-DI-0.24×pain VAS/100-0.01×DAS28 (adjusted R (2)=57.6%, RMSE=0.1654 and MAE=0.1222). Also in the validation set, the RMSE and MAE were shown to be the smallest. The model with HAQ-DI, pain VAS, and DAS28 showed the best performance, and this mapping model enabled the estimation of an EQ-5D value for RA patients in whom utility values have not been measured.
- Research Article
108
- 10.1002/art.24563
- Oct 29, 2009
- Arthritis Care & Research
Work disability is a serious consequence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We conducted a 6-month, prospective randomized controlled trial comparing assessments of function, work, coping, and disease activity in employed patients with RA receiving occupational therapy intervention versus usual care. Employed patients with RA with increased perceived work disability risk were identified by the RA Work Instability Scale (WIS; score >or=10). Patients were stratified into medium- (score >or=10 and <17) and high-risk (>or=17) groups, then randomized into occupational therapy or usual care groups. Assessments were conducted at baseline and 6 months. The primary outcome was the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure (COPM), a standardized patient self-report of function. Other outcomes included the disability index (DI) of the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ); Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28); RA WIS; EuroQol Index; visual analog scales (VAS) for pain, work satisfaction, and work performance; and days missed/month. Independent sample t-tests and Mann-Whitney U tests were used. We recruited 32 employed patients with RA. At baseline the groups were well matched. At 6 months the improvement in the occupational therapy group was significantly greater than that in the usual care group for all functional outcomes (COPM performance P < 0.001, COPM satisfaction P < 0.001, HAQ DI P = 0.02) and most work outcomes (RA WIS [P = 0.04], VAS work satisfaction [P < 0.001], VAS work performance [P = 0.01]). Additionally, Arthritis Helplessness Index (P = 0.02), Arthritis Impact Measurement Scales II pain subscale (P = 0.03), VAS pain (P = 0.007), EuroQol Index (P = 0.02), EuroQol global (P = 0.02), and DAS28 (P = 0.03) scores significantly improved. Targeted, comprehensive occupational therapy intervention improves functional and work-related outcomes in employed RA patients at risk of work disability.
- Research Article
127
- 10.1002/art.21259
- Sep 1, 2005
- Arthritis & Rheumatism
Based on comparisons of short-term cohort studies or cross-sectional samples of patients from different calendar times, it has been suggested that present patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a milder disease course compared with that of patients in past decades. This study was undertaken to investigate whether the course of disease activity and functional disability in patients with RA has become milder over the past several years. We used the Nijmegen inception cohort of early RA, which included all patients with newly diagnosed RA who had attended the department of rheumatology at Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre since 1985. Patients were assessed for disease activity by the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) every 3 months and for functional disability by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) disability index (DI) every 6 months. Within the total cohort, 4 subcohorts were defined, based on the date of inclusion of the patients (1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005). To investigate whether the course of disease activity and functional disability (over time) was different between the subcohorts, longitudinal regression analysis (linear mixed models) was used, with the DAS28 and HAQ DI over time as outcome variables, respectively, and subcohort as the independent variable, correcting for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. The treatment strategy was compared between the subcohorts. The DAS28 at baseline and over the first 5 years of disease was lower in the more recent subcohorts. The HAQ DI did not show improvement but instead a trend toward worsening functional disability. Using longitudinal regression it was shown that disease activity improved early in the disease course and stabilized thereafter, and that this improvement was greater in patients in the more recent subcohorts and in patients with a higher baseline DAS28. Initially, the HAQ DI also improved but stabilized thereafter, and this initial improvement was less pronounced in patients in the more recent subcohorts and was greater for patients with a higher baseline HAQ DI. The treatment strategy was more aggressive in the more recent subcohorts, as shown by a shorter duration from diagnosis to the start of treatment with prednisone or disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), and a greater prevalence of DMARD therapy. The course of disease activity in RA patients has become milder in more recent years. The reason for this improving trend remains to be elucidated, although the trend coincides with a more aggressive treatment strategy.
- Abstract
- 10.1136/annrheumdis-2012-eular.3396
- Jun 1, 2013
- Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
BackgroundSleep quality is an important aspect of health and well-being and the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials group has identified sleep quality as a key concern for rheumatoid arthritis...
- Research Article
2
- 10.3389/fonc.2022.902991
- Jul 13, 2022
- Frontiers in Oncology
BackgroundThere remains a demand for a practical method of identifying lipid-poor adrenal lesions.PurposeTo explore the predictive value of computed tomography (CT) features combined with demographic characteristics for lipid-poor adrenal adenomas and nonadenomas.Materials and MethodsWe retrospectively recruited patients with lipid-poor adrenal lesions between January 2015 and August 2021 from two independent institutions as follows: Institution 1 for the training set and the internal validation set and Institution 2 for the external validation set. Two radiologists reviewed CT images for the three sets. We performed a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm to select variables; subsequently, multivariate analysis was used to develop a generalized linear model. The probability threshold of the model was set to 0.5 in the external validation set. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model and radiologists. The model was validated and tested in the internal validation and external validation sets; moreover, the accuracy between the model and both radiologists were compared using the McNemar test in the external validation set.ResultsIn total, 253 patients (median age, 55 years [interquartile range, 47–64 years]; 135 men) with 121 lipid-poor adrenal adenomas and 132 nonadenomas were included in Institution 1, whereas another 55 patients were included in Institution 2. The multivariable analysis showed that age, male, lesion size, necrosis, unenhanced attenuation, and portal venous phase attenuation were independently associated with adrenal adenomas. The clinical-image model showed AUCs of 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91, 0.98), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.97), and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.94) in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set, respectively. In the external validation set, the model showed a significantly and non-significantly higher accuracy than reader 1 (84% vs. 65%, P = 0.031) and reader 2 (84% vs. 69%, P = 0.057), respectively.ConclusionsOur clinical-image model displayed good utility in differentiating lipid-poor adrenal adenomas. Further, it showed better diagnostic ability than experienced radiologists in the external validation set.
- Abstract
1
- 10.1136/annrheumdis-2023-eular.1955
- May 30, 2023
- Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
BackgroundThere has been recent advancement of our understanding of pain in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). With the advent of biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), clinicians managing RA have a wide range...
- Research Article
11
- 10.1002/acr.22126
- Feb 24, 2014
- Arthritis Care & Research
To compare the burden of disease and its development over time in patients referred to an early arthritis cohort who were diagnosed either as having arthralgias without synovitis or as having rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Patients diagnosed as having arthralgias without synovitis or RA were selected from the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort. Data on clinical and psychological characteristics, demographics, pain scores (Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Activity Index), functional ability (Health Assessment Questionnaire), health-related quality of life (HRQOL; Short Form 36), fatigue (visual analog scale and Fatigue Assessment Scale), and health care utilization (HCU) were collected at baseline and at 6 and 12 months of followup. The burden of disease measures (pain, functional ability, fatigue, and HRQOL) and HCU levels were plotted over time for both groups. A Poisson regression model for repeated data was used to identify determinants of HCU for both groups. At baseline, 330 patients with arthralgias without synovitis (nonsynovitis [NS] group) and 244 RA patients (RA group) were included. Overall, the burden of disease measures and HCU levels were very similar between groups. Both groups showed improvement over time with respect to pain scores, functional ability, HRQOL, and HCU levels. Independent predictors of high HCU were identified as more pain, worse physical health, and external locus of control in the NS group and as shorter duration of symptoms, low chance locus of control, and worse physical functioning in the RA group. Despite the absence of an inflammatory diagnosis, patients with arthralgias without synovitis experienced a similar burden of disease compared with RA patients.
- Discussion
- 10.1097/cm9.0000000000001582
- Aug 4, 2021
- Chinese Medical Journal
Patient-reported outcomes in Chinese rheumatoid arthritis patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis
- Research Article
7
- 10.1007/s00261-020-02588-2
- May 22, 2020
- Abdominal Radiology
The objective of this study was to investigate whether computed tomography texture analysis can be used to differentiate papillary renal cell carcinoma (PRCC) subtypes. Sixty-two PRCC tumors were retrospectively evaluated, with 30 type 1 tumors and 32 type 2 tumors. Texture parameters quantified from three-phase contrast-enhanced CT images were compared with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated for each parameter. The selected texture parameters of each phase were used to generate support vector machine (SVM) classifiers. Decision curve analysis (DCA) of the classification was performed. The two texture parameters with the top two AUC values were - 333-7 Correlation (AUC = 0.772) and 45-7 Entropy (AUC = 0.753) in the corticomedullary phase, 333-4 Correlation (AUC = 0.832) and 45-7 Entropy (AUC = 0.841) in the nephrographic phase, and 135-7 Entropy (AUC = 0.858) and - 333-1 InformationMeasureCorr2 (AUC = 0.849) in the excretory phase. Entropy and Correlation have a high correlation with the two types of PRCC and are increased in type 2 PRCC. A model incorporating the texture parameters with the top two AUC values in each phase produced an AUC of 0.922 with an accuracy of 84% (sensitivity = 89% and specificity = 80%). The nephrographic-phase model and the model combining the texture parameters of the three phases can differentiate the two types with the largest net benefit. Computed tomography texture analysis can be used to distinguish type 2 PRCC from type 1 with high accuracy, which may be clinically important.
- Research Article
- 10.1136/annrheumdis-2020-eular.4970
- Jun 1, 2020
- Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
Background:Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is characterized by persistent synovitis that leads to structural joint damage causing deformity and disability. Dickkopf-1(DKK-1) was shown to be a major regulator of joint remodeling, which is associated with subchondral bone erosion in RA. Dickkopf-1 is a secreted glycoprotein that also acts as a potent negative regulator of wingless signaling. Current therapies used to treat RA are not able to effectively repair damaged bone. There is a strong relationship between Wnt signaling pathway, RA and DKK-1 so; this relationship may be a therapeutic point of interestObjectives:To assess the correlation between Dickkopf-1 and RA disease activity, disability, severity and functional status.Methods:Fifty patients fulfilled the 2010 ACR -EULAR criteria for RA were included. Twenty five healthy age and sex matched individuals served as a control (for assessment of serum DKK-1 level). Excluded from the study, patients with Paget disease, Multiple myeloma, Breast cancer, Bone metastasis, Diabetes mellitus, Hyperthyroidism, patients on medication that influence bone metabolism as: heparin, anticonvulsant or thyroxin.All patients were subjected to full history and examination. Disease activity measures as disease activity score (DAS 28-ESR), Visual analogue scale (VAS) and Disease disability indices including ACR criteria of functional status in RA and Health assessment questionnaire disability index (HAQ-DI). Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-Reactive protein (CRP), Rheumatoid factor (RF), Anti citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA) and Serum dickkopf-1 level. Simple erosion narrowing score (SENS) and Ultrasound DAS (US DAS) were done for all patients. Ultrasound DAS included 28 joints, Power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS) examination of 22 joints and gray scale ultrasound (GSUS) examination for Effusion/Hypertrophy (E/H) of 28 joints. Ultrasound erosion count (USEC) and Ultrasound erosion rate (USER) were assessed.Results:Dickkopf-1 level in RA patients ranged from 66 to 453 ng/ml while in the control group ranged from 15 to 87 ng/ml with statistically significant difference. RA patients were grouped in to: group 1 included 15 (30%) patients with normal DKK-1 level and group 2: included 35 (70%) patients with elevated DKK-1. The differences between both groups were highly significant regarding clinical and laboratory measures (duration of morning stiffness, DAS 28, VAS, ESR, CRP, RF and ACPA), and regarding HAQ-DI, SENS and US DAS. We found significant positive correlation between DKK-1 level and laboratory measures (ESR, CRP, RF, ACPA), radiographic parameters (SENS and erosion score), ultrasonographic parameters (US DAS, USEC and USER) and with HAQ-DI and functional status.Conclusion:Serum level of dickkopf-1 was elevated in RA patients and the results demonstrated the relationship between increased dickkopf-1 level and increased disease activity, decreased functional capacity and chronic structural damage suggesting its important role in the pathogenesis of RA.
- Research Article
5
- 10.4103/1110-161x.168158
- Oct 1, 2015
- Egyptian Rheumatology and Rehabilitation
Fatigue is a serious outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Inflammatory synovitis is potentially an important causal factor for RA fatigue. Other factors include psychosocial factors, health beliefs, illness perceptions, and poor social support. Fatigue also has strong relationships to pain and depression. The aim of the study was to define the amount of fatigue experienced by RA patients, and determine the relative contribution of RA disease activity to fatigue in comparison with factors such as pain and treatment in established RA cases using different instruments to assess fatigue [visual analog scale (VAS) fatigue and the vitality subscale of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) questionnaire]. A total of 50 adult patients diagnosed with RA according to the 1987 Revised American College of Rheumatology – 42 of them being female and the remaining eight being male, with a mean age of 45.36 ± 9.6 years and a mean disease duration of 7.78 ± 4.1 years – were included in the study. Fatigue was measured using a 100 mm VAS and the SF-36 vitality scores. We measured pain using 100 mm VAS, Disease Activity Score for 28 joint counts (DAS28), early morning stiffness, the modified Health Assessment Questionnaire score, and the physician global assessment score. Fatigue was common in RA patients. Out of 50 patients, 42 patients had fatigue (VAS ≥ 20 mm), and at the same time 26 had high fatigue scores (VAS350 mm). The mean SF-36 energy and vitality score was 60.5 ± 23.1. The VAS fatigue scores and the SF-36 vitality scores were significantly correlated with disease activity measures, including duration of morning stiffness (P = 0.001), articular index (P < 0.0001), VAS pain (P < 0.0001), DAS28 (P < 0.0001), C reactive protein (CRP) (P = 0.04 and 0.001, respectively), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (P = 0.04), and rheumatoid factor positivity (P = 0.04 and 0.01, respectively). Pain had the strongest association with fatigue, followed by articular index, duration of morning stiffness, ESR, DAS28, and finally CRP in that order. High fatigue levels are common in RA and are mainly linked to pain. VAS fatigue scores are simple measurements that can be used for assessment of fatigue in patients with RA.
- Research Article
8
- 10.3899/jrheum.161214
- Jul 1, 2017
- The Journal of Rheumatology
To assess patient-reported variables as predictors of change in disease activity and disability in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Cases were recruited to the Yorkshire Early Arthritis Register (YEAR) between 1997 and 2009 (n = 1415). Predictors of the 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28) and the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) at baseline and change over 12 months were identified using multilevel models. Baseline predictors were sex, age, symptom duration, autoantibody status, pain and fatigue visual analog scales (VAS), duration of early morning stiffness (EMS), DAS28, and HAQ-DI. Rates of change were slower in women than men: DAS28 fell by 0.19 and 0.17 units/month, and HAQ-DI by 0.028 and 0.023 units/month in men and women, respectively. Baseline pain and EMS had small effects on rates of change, whereas fatigue VAS was only associated with DAS28 and HAQ-DI at baseline. In patients recruited up to 2002, DAS28 reduced more quickly in those with greater pain at baseline (by 0.01 units/mo of DAS28 per cm pain VAS, p = 0.024); in patients recruited after 2002, the effect for pain was stronger (by 0.01 units/mo, p = 0.087). DAS28 reduction was greater with longer EMS. In both cohorts, fall in HAQ-DI (p = 0.006) was greater in patients with longer EMS duration, but pain and fatigue were not significant predictors of change in HAQ-DI. Patient-reported fatigue, pain, and stiffness at baseline are of limited value for the prediction of RA change in disease activity (DAS28) and activity limitation (HAQ-DI).
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