Development and external validation of predictive algorithms for six-week mortality in spinal metastasis using 4,304 patients from five institutions

61. Development and external validation of predictive algorithms for six-week mortality in spinal metastasis using 4304 patients from five institutions

Updated external validation of the SORG machine learning algorithms for prediction of ninety-day and one-year mortality after surgery for spinal metastasis

Does the SORG algorithm generalize to a contemporary cohort of patients with spinal metastases on external validation?

International external validation of the SORG machine learning algorithms for predicting 90-day and one-year survival of patients with spine metastases using a Taiwanese cohort

Patients presenting with neurological deficits and/or pain due to spinal metastasis usually require immediate or subacute surgical treatment. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether or not side effects of primary cancer location might influence postoperative complication rate. We therefore analyzed our spinal database to identify factors influencing early postoperative complications after surgery for symptomatic spinal metastases. From 2013 to 2017, 163 consecutive patients suffering from symptomatic spinal metastases were treated at our department. Early postoperative complications were defined as any postoperative event requiring additional medical or surgical treatment within 30days of spinal surgery. A multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for postoperative complications after surgery for spinal metastasis. Overall, 39 of 163 patients who underwent spinal surgery for spinal metastasis developed early postoperative complications throughout the treatment course (24%). Preoperative ASA score ≥ 3 (p = 0.003), preoperative C-reactive protein level > 10mg/l (p = 0.008), preoperative Karnofsky Performance Score < 60% (p = 0.03), radiation treatment within 2months of surgery (p = 0.01), presence of diabetes mellitus (p = 0.008), and preoperative complete neurological impairment (p = 0.04) were significant and independent predictors for early postoperative complications in patients with surgery for spinal metastasis. The ability to preoperatively predict postoperative complication risk is valuable to select critically ill patients at higher risk requiring special attention. Therefore, the present study identified several significant and independent risk factors for the development of early postoperative complication in patients who underwent surgery for spinal metastasis.

40. Surgical Site Infection in Spinal Metastasis - Risk Factor and Countermeasure

178. Metastatic spine disease: should patients with short life expectancy be denied surgical care?

Case report. We report a patient who was successfully treated with total en bloc spondylectomy (TES) for T7 metastasis after living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Spinal metastasis from HCC has a poor prognosis. There are only a few studies on surgical outcomes of spinal metastasis from HCC. Because of the high surgical morbidity and short life expectancy in patients with HCC with spinal metastasis, TES is not considered in these patients, although several studies have reported satisfactory results for TES for some types of metastatic spinal tumors. Liver transplantation (LT) is the curative treatment option for early HCC. However, the recurrence of HCC is a possible problem after LT, although no reports on surgery for spinal metastasis following LT for HCC have been published. We report on the first case of a patient who was successfully treated with TES for T7 metastasis after living donor LT for HCC. The patient was a 65-year-old man, who had undergone living donor LT for HCC 2 years before. His main symptom was progressive gait disturbance because of the spinal cord compression by the tumor at T7. Radiology and pathology examinations revealed a solitary metastasis at T7 with neither recurrence in the liver nor metastasis in the other organs. We performed TES using a pedicle screw system and a mesh cage filled with frozen autografts. After surgery, the patient showed clear improvement in neurological symptoms. At 3 months after surgery, a T4 metastasis was detected with magnetic resonance imaging, and the patient was treated with heavy ion radiotherapy. He could walk without a cane and there was no evidence of recurrence at 1.5 years after surgery. Solitary spinal metastasis of HCC may become an indication for TES if liver function improves after LT. 5.

External evaluation of the SORG machine learning algorithm predicting 90-day and 1-year mortality in a Midwest cohort of patients with spinal metastasis.

This study aimed to analyze the survival and functional outcome after surgery in spinal metastasis patients with a short life expectancy and to compare the baseline characteristics based on 3-month survival. A total of 492 surgical treatment cases with a preoperative revised Tokuhashi score ≤ 8were reviewed. Median survival was calculated and Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to analyze the survival rates at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years postoperatively. The surgical period was divided into three time frames to examine the time trends. For the functional outcome, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS) was analyzed. This study categorized subjects based on 3-month survival and compared the baseline characteristics. The median overall survival was 10.6 months. The 2013–2020 period showed a significantly better median survival than the other two periods (p < 0.001). Lung and kidney cancers showed a significant survival improvement in 2013–2020 (p < 0.001). Patients with ECOG-PS ≤ 2 increased from 37.4% preoperatively to 63.7% postoperatively (p < 0.001). There were significantly more cases of preoperative favorable performance status, slow and moderate growth cancers, and chemotherapy after surgery in the survival ≥3 months group. Depending on the type of primary cancer, surgery can be considered even in spinal metastasis patients with a short life expectancy, particularly those with a good performance status.

Simple SummaryPredicting prognosis in cancer patients is needed to guide decision making. In order to predict survival, nomograms can be used to estimate chances of survival based on clinical characteristics. In order to identify metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients with a very short life expectancy (less than 12 weeks) after receiving multiple standard treatments, the Colon Life nomogram was previously developed. Before a nomogram can be used in daily practice, it is essential to show that it accurately predicts survival in different real-life populations and can be used to guide clinical decision making. This is called external validation. We externally validated the Colon Life nomogram in a cohort of patients with refractory mCRC who were treated with a last treatment option, trifluridine/tipiracil, in daily practice. We demonstrated that the nomogram severely overestimated 12-week mortality and therefore should not be used in clinical practice in its present form. We also showed that quality of life reported by patients themselves can improve the prediction of survival, stressing the importance of patient-reported outcomes. We recommend conducting a study with a sufficiently large sample size to update the Colon Life nomogram or to develop a new model and include quality of life.Background: Predicting prognosis in refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients is needed to guide decision making. The Colon Life nomogram was developed to predict 12-week mortality in refractory mCRC patients. The aim of this study is to validate the Colon Life nomogram in last line/refractory patients receiving trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) in daily practice. Methods: The validation cohort consists of 150 QUALITAS study patients, an observational substudy of the Prospective Dutch CRC cohort, who were treated with FTD/TPI between 2016 and 2019. Model performance was assessed on discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. The additional prognostic value of baseline quality of life (QoL) and thymidine kinase (TK1) expression in tissue was explored. Results: Of the 150 patients, 25 (16.7%) died within 12 weeks of starting FTD/TPI treatment. The C-statistic was 0.63 (95% C.I. 0.56–0.70). The observed/expected ratio was 0.52 (0.37–0.73). The calibration intercept and slope were −1.06 (−1.53 to −0.58) and 0.41 (0.01–0.81), respectively, which indicated overestimation of 12-week mortality by the nomogram. Decision curve analysis showed the nomogram did not yield a positive net benefit at clinically meaningful thresholds for predicted 12-week mortality. Addition of QoL to the nomogram improved the C-statistic to 0.85 (0.81–0.89). TK1 expression was associated with progression-free survival but not with overall survival. Conclusion: We demonstrated evident miscalibration of the Colon Life nomogram upon external validation, which hampers its use in clinical practice. We recommend conducting a study with a sufficiently large sample size to update the Colon Life nomogram or to develop a new model including QoL.

ObjectiveTo investigate the patient quality of life and cost-utility compared between radiotherapy alone and combined surgery and radiotherapy for spinal metastasis (SM) in Thailand.MethodsPatients with SM with an indication for surgery during 2018–2020 were prospectively recruited. Patients were assigned to either the combination surgery and radiotherapy group or the radiotherapy alone group. Quality of life was assessed by EuroQol-5D-5L (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire, and relevant healthcare costs were collected pretreatment, and at 3-month and 6-month posttreatment. Total lifetime cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for each group.ResultsTwenty-four SM patients (18 females, 6 males) were included. Of those, 12 patients underwent combination treatment, and 12 underwent radiotherapy alone. At 6-month posttreatment, 10 patients in the surgery group, and 11 patients in the nonsurgery group remained alive for a survival rate of 83.3% and 91.7%, retrospectively. At 6-month posttreatment, the mean utility in the combination treatment group was significantly better than in the radiotherapy alone group (0.804 ± 0.264 vs. 0.518 ± 0.282, respectively; p = 0.011). Total lifetime costs were 59,863.14 United States dollar (USD) in the combination treatment group and 24,526.97 USD in the radiation-only group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio using 6-month follow-up data was 57,074.01 USD per QALY gained.ConclusionSurgical treatment combined with radiotherapy to treat SM significantly improved patient quality of life compared to radiotherapy alone during the 6-month posttreatment period. However, combination treatment was found not to be cost-effective compared to radiotherapy alone for SM at the Thailand willingness-to-pay threshold of 5,113 USD/QALY.

External validation of a machine learning prediction model for massive blood loss during surgery for spinal metastases: a multi-institutional study using 880 patients.

Surgery for spinal metastasis is a palliative treatment aimed at improving patient quality of life by alleviating pain and reversing or delaying neurologic dysfunction, but with a mean survival time of less than 1 year and significant complication rates, appropriate patient selection is crucial. To identify the most significant prognostic variables of survival after surgery for spinal metastasis. Chart review was performed on 200 surgically treated spinal metastasis patients at Stanford Hospital between 1999 and 2009. Survival analysis was performed and variables entered into a Cox proportional hazards model to determine their significance. Median overall survival was 8.0 months, with a 30-day mortality rate of 3.0% and a 30-day complication rate of 34.0%. A Cox proportional hazards model showed radiosensitivity of the tumor (hazard ratio: 2.557, P<.001), preoperative ambulatory status (hazard ratio: 2.355, P=.0001), and Charlson Comorbidity Index (hazard ratio: 2.955, P<.01) to be significant predictors of survival. Breast cancer had the best prognosis (median survival, 27.1 months), whereas gastrointestinal tumors had the worst (median survival, 2.66 months). We identified the Charlson Comorbidity Index score as one of the strongest predictors of survival after surgery for spinal metastasis. We confirmed previous findings that radiosensitivity of the tumor and ambulatory status are significant predictors of survival.

Prevalence and risk factors for venous thromboembolism in spinal metastasis patients undergoing decompression with internal instruments: Prospective cohort study