Abstract
To obtain long term accurate high resolution precipitation for the Heihe River Basin (HRB), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations were performed using two different initial boundary conditions, with nine microphysical processes for different analysis parameterization schemes. High spatial-temporal precipitation was simulated from 2000 to 2013 and a suitable set of initial, boundary, and micro parameters for the HRB was evaluated from the Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research project and Chinese Meteorological Administration data at hourly, daily, monthly, and annual time scales using various statistical indicators. It was found that annual precipitation has gradually increased over the HRB since 2000. Precipitation mostly occurs in summer and is higher in monsoon-influenced areas. High elevations experience winter snowfall. Precipitation is higher in the eastern upstream area than in the western upstream, area; however, the converse occurs in winter. Precipitation gradually increases with elevation from 1000 m to 4000 m, and the maximum precipitation occurs at the height of 3500–4000 m, then the precipitation slowly decreases with elevation from 4000 m to the top over the Qilian Mountains. Precipitation is scare and has a high temporal variation in the downstream area. Results are systematically validated using the in situ observations in this region and it was found that precipitation simulated by the WRF model using suitable physical configuration agrees well with the observation over the HRB at hourly, daily, monthly and yearly scales, as well as at spatial pattern. We also conclude that the dynamic downscaling using the WRF model is capable of producing high-resolution and reliable precipitation over complex mountainous areas and extremely arid environments. The downscaled data can meet the requirement of river basin scale hydrological modeling and water balance analysis.
Highlights
Precipitation plays an important role in meteorology, climatology, and hydrology, and is a crucial link between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere [1,2]
The negative error range means the precipitation simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is less than that observed
The daily probability of detection (POD) was higher than the hourly value, whereas the converse was found for the false alarm ratio (FAR)
Summary
Precipitation plays an important role in meteorology, climatology, and hydrology, and is a crucial link between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere [1,2]. The spatial-temporal distribution pattern of precipitation has a large effect on the land surface hydrological flux [3,4]. Precipitation is the most important variable affecting the exchange of moisture and heat between the atmosphere and the land surface, and is of primary importance for the study of regional hydrological processes and water resources management [3,4,5,6,7]. Obtaining high resolution and reliable precipitation forcing in complex terrain, mountainous regions, to drive land surface model is still a challenging work [8]. General Circulation Models (GCMs) have the ability to treat the complex interactions of atmospheric physics and planetary-scale dynamics fairly well, but coarse horizontal resolution in GCMs restricts realistic simulation of climatic details on spatial variability [9].
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