Developing impact-based thresholds for coastal inundation from tide gauge observations

Abstract

This study presents the first assessment of the observed frequency of the impacts of high sea levels at locations along Australia’s northern coastline. We used a new methodology to systematically define impact-based thresholds for coastal tide gauges, utilising reports of coastal inundation from diverse sources. This method permitted a holistic consideration of impact-producing relative sea-level extremes without attributing physical causes. Impact-based thresholds may also provide a basis for the development of meaningful coastal flood warnings, forecasts and monitoring in the future. These services will become increasingly important as sea-level rise continues.The frequency of high sea-level events leading to coastal flooding increased at all 21 locations where impact-based thresholds were defined. Although we did not undertake a formal attribution, this increase was consistent with the well-documented rise in global sea levels. Notably, tide gauges from the south coast of Queensland showed that frequent coastal inundation was already occurring. At Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, impact-based thresholds were being exceeded on average 21.6 and 24.3 h per year respectively. In the case of Brisbane, the number of hours of inundation annually has increased fourfold since 1977.