Developing federated time-to-event scores using heterogeneous real-world survival data.

Routine blood cultures have been recommended for all patients in treatment guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This practice has become a major area of resource utilisation, despite the lack of evidence in its clinical utility. Calls for abandoning the practice is balanced by the occasions of uncovering an unexpected pathogen or an unusual antimicrobial resistance pattern. The aim of this study is to identify factors that predict positive blood cultures among patients hospitalised for pneumonia upon presentation at the Emergency Department (ED). A case control study was carried out on patients treated for pneumonia in the ED who had routine blood cultures performed as part of their management. The pneumonia severity index (PSI) was used to categorize patients into low- and high-risk for 30-day mortality. Logistic regression was carried out to determine factors significantly associated with positive blood cultures, from which a predictive probability equation was used to identify patients whose blood cultures were negative at a pre-determined cut-off, with minimum number of culture positive misclassification. A scoring system was devised, with scores predicting which patients would be likely to have a positive or negative blood culture. A total of 1407 patients with pneumonia were treated at ED from May to December 2006, from whom 1800 blood cultures were performed. Of these, 140 cultures (7.8%) grew organisms, comprising 96 (5.3%) true positive cultures and 44 (2.4%) contaminated cultures. Logistic regression analysis identified ill patients with higher PSI classes, smokers and Malay patients to be more likely to have positive blood cultures. Patients who had prior treatment with antibiotics, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cough were less likely to have positive blood cultures. An index to predict a negative blood culture resulted in the accurate classification of all but 4 positive patients while still correctly classifying 27.8% of blood culture negative patients. The area under the ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76). A simplified scoring system was devised based on the predictive model had a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 38.2% for a positive blood culture. Routine blood cultures yielded negative results in 94% of patients presenting with pneumonia. The development of the clinical scoring system is a first step towards selecting patients for whom blood cultures is performed and improve cost-effectiveness.

Determinants of antibiotic over-prescribing for upper respiratory tract infections in an emergency department with good primary care access: a quantitative analysis

Scorpion Stings Presenting to an Emergency Department in Singapore With Special Reference to Isometrus Maculatus

BackgroundThe uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in non-urgent emergency department (ED) attendance among people presenting with upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) symptoms. These non-urgent visits, often manageable in primary care, exacerbated ED overcrowding, which could compromise the quality of ED services. Understanding patients' expectations and the reasons for these ED visits is imperative to mitigate the problem of ED overcrowding. Hence, we assessed the factors influencing patients' expectations for diagnostic tests during their ED visits for uncomplicated URTI during different phases of the pandemic.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study on adults with URTI symptoms seeking care at four public EDs in Singapore between March 2021 and March 2022. We segmented the study period into three COVID-19 pandemic phases—containment, transition, and mitigation. The outcome variables are whether patients expected (1) a COVID-19-specific diagnostic test, (2) a non-COVID-19-specific diagnostic test, (3) both COVID-19-specific and non-COVID-19-specific diagnostic tests, or (4) no diagnostic test. We built a multinomial regression model with backward stepwise selection and classified the findings according to Andersen's healthcare utilization model.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 34.5 (12.7) years. Factors (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]) influencing expectations for a COVID-19-specific diagnostic test in the ED include younger age {21–40 years: (2.98 [1.04–8.55])}, no prior clinical consultation (2.10 [1.13–3.89]), adherence to employer's health policy (3.70 [1.79–7.67]), perceived non-severity of illness (2.50 [1.39–4.55]), being worried about contracting COVID-19 (2.29 [1.11–4.69]), and during the transition phase of the pandemic (2.29 [1.15–4.56]). Being non-employed influenced the expectation for non-COVID-19-specific diagnostic tests (3.83 [1.26–11.66]). Factors influencing expectations for both COVID-19-specific and non-COVID-19-specific tests include younger age {21–40 years: (3.61 [1.26–10.38]); 41–60 years: (4.49 [1.43–14.13])}, adherence to employer's health policy (2.94 [1.41–6.14]), being worried about contracting COVID-19 (2.95 [1.45– 5.99]), and during the transition (2.03 [1.02–4.06]) and mitigation (2.02 [1.03–3.97]) phases of the pandemic.ConclusionPatients' expectations for diagnostic tests during ED visits for uncomplicated URTI were dynamic across the COVID-19 pandemic phases. Expectations for COVID-19-specific diagnostic tests for ED visits for uncomplicated URTI were higher among younger individuals and those worried about contracting COVID-19 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Future studies are required to enhance public communications on the availability of diagnostic services in primary care and public education on self-management of emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19.

Emergency Departments (EDs) worldwide are confronted with rising patient volumes causing significant strains on both Emergency Medicine and entire healthcare systems. Consequently, many EDs are in a situation where the number of patients in the ED is temporarily beyond the capacity for which the ED is designed and resourced to manage-a phenomenon called Emergency Department (ED) crowding. ED crowding can impair the quality of care delivered to patients and lead to longer patient waiting times for ED doctor's consult (time to provider) and admission to the hospital ward. In Singapore, total ED attendance at public hospitals has grown significantly, that is, roughly 5.57% per year between 2005 and 2016 and, therefore, emergency physicians have to cope with patient volumes above the safe workload. The purpose of this study is to create a virtual ED that closely maps the processes of a hospital-based ED in Singapore using system dynamics, that is, a computer simulation method, in order to visualize, simulate, and improve patient flows within the ED. Based on the simulation model (virtual ED), we analyze four policies: (i) co-location of primary care services within the ED, (ii) increase in the capacity of doctors, (iii) a more efficient patient transfer to inpatient hospital wards, and (iv) a combination of policies (i) to (iii). Among the tested policies, the co-location of primary care services has the largest impact on patients' average length of stay (ALOS) in the ED. This implies that decanting non-emergency lower acuity patients from the ED to an adjacent primary care clinic significantly relieves the burden on ED operations. Generally, in Singapore, there is a tendency to strengthen primary care and to educate patients to see their general practitioners first in case of non-life threatening, acute illness.

Emergency Departments (EDs) worldwide are confronted with rising patient volumes causing significant strains on both Emergency Medicine and entire healthcare systems. Consequently, many EDs are in a situation where the number of patients in the ED is temporarily beyond the capacity for which the ED is designed and resourced to manage―a phenomenon called Emergency Department (ED) crowding. ED crowding can impair the quality of care delivered to patients and lead to longer patient waiting times for ED doctor’s consult (time to provider) and admission to the hospital ward. In Singapore, total ED attendance at public hospitals has grown significantly, that is, roughly 5.57% per year between 2005 and 2016 and, therefore, emergency physicians have to cope with patient volumes above the safe workload. The purpose of this study is to create a virtual ED that closely maps the processes of a hospital-based ED in Singapore using system dynamics, that is, a computer simulation method, in order to visualize, simulate, and improve patient flows within the ED. Based on the simulation model (virtual ED), we analyze four policies: (i) co-location of primary care services within the ED, (ii) increase in the capacity of doctors, (iii) a more efficient patient transfer to inpatient hospital wards, and (iv) a combination of policies (i) to (iii). Among the tested policies, the co-location of primary care services has the largest impact on patients’ average length of stay (ALOS) in the ED. This implies that decanting non-emergency lower acuity patients from the ED to an adjacent primary care clinic significantly relieves the burden on ED operations. Generally, in Singapore, there is a tendency to strengthen primary care and to educate patients to see their general practitioners first in case of non-life threatening, acute illness.

The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and types of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) use among pediatric emergency department (ED) patients and perceptions of CAM among the caregivers who administer CAM in Singapore. A survey was administered in a Singapore ED (June 2016-June 2017). A convenience sample of parents/carers accompanying pediatric patients completed a self-administered questionnaire. The primary outcome measures were prevalence of CAM use and perceptions of CAM. Parents/carers of 610 patients participated. Four hundred seventy-five (78.0%, 95% confidence interval, 74.5-81.0) had taken a CAM within the previous 12 months and 110 (18.1%; 95% confidence interval, 14.8-21.0) had taken a CAM on the day of presentation. There were no sex differences between CAM users and nonusers (P = 0.691). The use of CAM was more common among preschool children and younger (62.9%). There was no difference in CAM use among those with and without chronic disease (P = 0.878). Vitamins/supplements, cod liver oil, and probiotics were the most commonly used CAM. A total of 0.7% of CAM use was reported to the ED doctor. There were no adverse effects reported. The perception that CAMs are safe was more common among parents or caregivers who had administered CAM (P = 0.008). Complementary and alternative medicine use is very common among pediatric ED patients in Singapore and is more prevalent than in Australia and the United Kingdom. However, it is not always reported to the doctor. Parents or caregivers who administer CAM are more likely to perceive CAMs to be safe.

Background: To our knowledge, there has been no study comparing intubation characteristics between attending and non-attending emergency physicians in Southeast Asia. We aim to identify whether the use of direct laryngoscopy compared to video laryngoscopy affects first-pass success rates between attending emergency physicians and non-attending emergency physicians. Materials and methods: Retrospective analysis of data from 2009 to 2016 in an existing airway registry managed by an academic Emergency Department in Singapore. Primary outcome was first-pass success intubation rate. Secondary outcome was first-pass success rate for difficult intubations. Difficult intubations were defined as LEMON (Look externally, Evaluate 3-3-2 rule, Mallampati score, Obstruction, Neck mobility) score of more than 1. Results: There were a total of 2909 intubations. Attending emergency physicians conducted 1748 intubations, while non-attending emergency physicians conducted 1161 intubations. The first-pass success rates for AEP were 84.2% and 67.4% for non-attending emergency physicians. Direct laryngoscopy was used in 86.2% of intubation by attending emergency physicians compared to 89.0% in the intubation by non-attending emergency physicians. Also, 7.6% of intubations by the attending emergency physicians were difficult compared to 8.8% by the non-attending emergency physicians (p = 0.25). Logistic regression of the effect of laryngoscopy device on first-pass success in all intubations showed a negative association with video laryngoscopy (odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.56–0.88). In the subgroup of difficult intubations, non-attending emergency physicians are 1.54 times (95% confidence interval, 0.53–4.42) as likely to have first-pass success with video laryngoscopy compared to that with direct laryngoscopy. On the contrary, in the subgroup of difficult intubations, attending emergency physicians are 0.90 times (95% confidence interval, 0.38–2.12) as likely to have first-pass success with video laryngoscopy compared to that with direct laryngoscopy. Conclusion: Our study showed that video laryngoscopy has a lower first-pass success rate for all intubations in general. Intubations performed by attending emergency physicians with direct laryngoscopy were associated with a higher first-pass success rate.

To assess the impact of delay in emergency department (ED) on outcome of critically ill patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit (MICU). Outcome was defined as hospital mortality and as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 6 months after intensive care assessed by the 15D measure. The 15D is a generic, 15-dimensional, standardized measure of HRQoL. We hypothesized that prolonged stay in the ED is related to worse outcome. A prospective follow-up cohort study in university hospital. All consecutive 1675 patients admitted to the MICU between July 2002 and June 2004. The 15D questionnaire was mailed to all patients alive at 6 months after admission. Of all MICU patients, 64% were admitted from ED. The mean length of stay in the ED was 6.2 h (95%CI 5.9-6.5 h). The hospital mortality rate was 24.4% (20.0% in the ED vs. 33.0% in the non-ED cohort, P < 0.001) and it was associated with higher age and degree of physiological derangement at admission. Neither the length of ED stay was associated with hospital mortality (P = 0.82) nor with HRQoL at 6 months after MICU admission (P = 0.34). Altogether, HRQoL at 6 months was significantly lower compared with the age- and sex-matched general population (P < 0.001). In a university hospital, the length of ED stay was not associated with the outcome of critically ill medical patients. However, we feel that the effect of ED treatment and delay on outcome and outcome prediction in the critically ill patients deserves further evaluation.

Background and Objectives: There is scarce data about the epidemiology, clinical features, investigations, diagnosis, treatment, and outcome in patients attending Singapore emergency departments (EDs) with nontraumatic headache. We sought to describe these characteristics of adult patients presenting to the ED with a primary complaint of headache. Materials and Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study on adult patients with nontraumatic headache over 4 consecutive weeks from 18 March 2019 to 14 April 2019 across four EDs in Singapore. Exclusion criteria were history of head trauma within 48 h of presentation, missing records, interhospital transfers, representation with the same headache as a recent previous visit and headache as an associated symptom. Results: During the study period, 579 patients (representing 1.8% of the total ED census) comprising 55.3% males and with a median age of 36 years presented to the four Singapore EDs with a primary complaint of nontraumatic headache. Paracetamol (41.5%), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (34.4%) and tramadol (31.5%) were the three commonest analgesics used either singly or in combination. Prochlorperazine (22.9%) and metoclopramide (17.4%) were frequent anti-emetic adjuncts. One-third of patients had computed tomography of the brain performed, which found abnormalities among 20.9% of them. ED diagnoses of primary headache conditions were made in 73.6% of patients. Conclusions: Primary headaches constituted most ED headache diagnoses. ED imaging of selected patients yielded a relatively high pick-up rate for significant intracranial abnormalities. Opioid use for symptomatic relief of headaches in the ED was found to be high, underscoring the need for improvement in headache analgesia relief practices in the ED.

Acute lung injury (ALI) affects an estimated 190,000 persons per year in U.S. intensive care units (ICUs), but little is known about its prevalence in the emergency department (ED). The objective was to describe the prevalence of ALI among mechanically ventilated adult nontrauma patients in the ED. The hypothesis was that the prevalence of ALI in adult ED patients would be low. This was a retrospective cohort study of admitted nontrauma patients presenting to an academic ED. Two trained investigators abstracted data from patient records using a standardized form. The use of mechanical ventilation in the ED was identified in two phases. First, all ED patients were screened for the current procedural terminology (CPT) code for endotracheal intubation (CPT 31500) from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2006. Second, each patient record was reviewed to verify the use of mechanical ventilation. ALI was defined in accordance with a modified version of the American-European Consensus Conference criteria as: 1) hypoxemia defined as PaO(2) /FiO(2) ratio ≤300 mm Hg on all arterial blood gases (ABGs) in the ED and the first 24 hours of admission, 2) the presence of bilateral infiltrates on chest radiograph, and 3) the absence of left atrial hypertension. Data are presented in absolute numbers and percentages. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using the kappa statistic. Of the 552 patients who received mechanical ventilation in the ED and were subsequently admitted, a total of 134 (24.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 20.8% to 28.0%) met hypoxemia criteria. Of these, 34 had evidence of left atrial hypertension, 52 did not have chest radiograph findings consistent with ALI, and two did not have a chest radiograph performed; the remaining 46 met ALI criteria. An additional two patients who died in the ED had clinical evidence of ALI. Thus, 48 of 552, or 8.7% (95% CI = 6.6% to 11.3%), met criteria for ALI. The kappa value for determination of ALI was 0.84 (95% CI = 0.54 to 1.0). The prevalence of ALI was nearly 9% in adult nontrauma patients receiving mechanical ventilation in the ED. Further study is required to determine which types of patients present to the ED with ALI, the extent to which lung protective ventilation is used, and the need for ED ventilator management algorithms.

Antibiotic expectation, behaviour, and receipt among patients presenting to emergency departments with uncomplicated upper respiratory tract infection during the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundThe COVID-19 disease outbreak that first surfaced in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, has taken the world by storm and ravaged almost every country in the world. Emergency departments (ED) in hospitals are on the frontlines, serving an essential function in identifying these patients, isolating them early whilst providing urgent medical care. This outbreak has reinforced the role of Emergency Medicine in public health. This paper documents the challenges faced and measures taken by a tertiary hospital’s ED in Singapore, in response to the outbreak.Main bodyThe ED detected the first case of COVID-19 in Singapore on 22 January 2020 in a Chinese tourist and also the first case of locally transmitted COVID-19 on 3 February 2020. The patient journeys through the patient reception area in the ED and undergoes fever screening before being shunted to isolation areas within the ED. Management and disposition of suspect COVID-19 patients are guided by a close-knit collaboration between ED and department of infectious diseases. With increasing number of patients, back-up plans for expansion of space and staff augmentation have been enacted. Staff safety is also of utmost importance, with provision and guidelines for personal protective equipment and team segregation to ensure no cross-contamination across staff. These have been made possible with an early setup of an operational command and control structure within the ED, managing manpower, logistics, operations, communication and information management and liaison with other clinical departments.ConclusionWith the large numbers of undifferentiated patients managed by the ED to date, more than 820 patients with COVID-19 have been identified in the hospital. Not a single member of the staff of the SGH Emergency Department has come down with the illness. The various measures undertaken by the department have helped to ensure good staff morale and strict adherence to safety procedures. We share the lessons learnt so that others who manage EDs around the world can benefit from our experience.

The last national emergency department (ED) inventory was performed in 2007, and major changes in population demographics, healthcare needs and infrastructure have since occurred. We sought to obtain an updated inventory of EDs in Singapore to identify and describe changes in their characteristics and capabilities across the years. In 2021, the National Emergency Department Inventories (NEDI) instrument was administered to the leadership of Singapore EDs. Emergency departments in Singapore are opened round the clock, have no restrictions on who can access care and are equipped to handle general medical emergencies. The questionnaire comprises 16 items across three categories: (a) general characteristics, (b) patient volume and (c) medical capabilities. We achieved 100% response rate from all 17 EDs - nine EDs in public hospitals and eight in private hospitals. In 2021, the EDs saw a total of 1,140,388 visits, an increase of 27% from 2007, with the median number of visits almost doubling (from 39,450 to 77,989); 41% and 59% of the EDs reported over 20% of visits arriving by ambulance and over 20% of visits resulting in inpatient admission, respectively. A clear distinction between public and private EDs across these metrics remained. Medical capabilities grew: 59% had access to a dedicated computed tomography scanner (up from 46%) and 82% had negative pressure isolation facilities (up from 54%). Overall, 41% of EDs self-assessed to be operating above their capacity. Singapore EDs have progressed in capabilities and capacity. Despite this, the increasing volume, complexity and acuity of patients are imposing strains on the emergency care system, signalling potential for systems improvement.

The Internet Tracking Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes (i*trACS): A Multicenter Registry of Patients With Suspicion of Acute Coronary Syndromes Reported Using the Standardized Reporting Guidelines for Emergency Department Chest Pain Studies