Abstract

A deterministic approach was used to evaluate alternative breeding objectives and schemes in a dairy cattle breed in Kenya. A two-tier open nucleus breeding scheme and a young bull system (YBS) were assumed with intensive recording and 100% artificial insemination (AI) in the nucleus and 35% AI in the commercial sector. The breeding objectives differed in the marketing scenario that each described and whether pasture feed for the cows was limited or not. Two marketing scenarios were distinguished; current (payment of milk is based on volume) and future (payment of milk would be based on volume and fat content). Therefore, four breeding objectives were considered: current no limitation (CUNL), current with limitation (CUWL), future no limitation (FUNL) and future with limitation (FUWL). The breeding schemes differed in the records available for use as selection criteria. The schemes ranged from one that only utilised fertility criteria (scheme 1) to one that incorporated fertility, weights, milk and fat yield (FY) criteria (scheme 5). The annual monetary genetic gain and profit per cow for all schemes varied within breeding objectives but were highest in CUNL. Within each marketing scenario, the annual monetary genetic gain and profit per cow was higher in a no limitation situation than in a situation with limitation on pastures. Within each breeding objective, the annual monetary genetic gain and profit per cow was highest for the breeding scheme with the highest level of investments. In all objectives, the difference in the profit per cow between a scheme that incorporated fertility, weights and milk yield (MY) criteria (scheme 4) and scheme 5 was small (0.4–1.2%) indicating that there is little benefit including FY as a selection criterion. Therefore, a breeding scheme that requires records on FY seems not to be reasonable from an economic point of view. This study showed that a well-organised breeding programme utilising an open nucleus, YBS and the smallholder farms as the commercial sector could sustain itself. The practical implications of the results and how sustainable breeding programmes can be established are discussed.

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