DETERMINISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE WAR ON THE CURRENT RESILIENCE OF THE UKRAINIAN SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM

Abstract

Purpose. The article aims to substantiate the need to study the slowdown in the dynamics of development of the Ukrainian socio-economic system in the face of the large-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, and the decrease in the overall level of resistance to global challenges and threats. Design/methodology/approach. The author of the article uses the method of literature review to substantiate the need to research the resilience of the socio-economic system in uncertainty and economic crises based on the new conditions of large-scale war. The scientific research methods of theoretical-logical explanation, systematization and explanation, and deterministic analysis are used to examine the nature and necessity of assessing the resilience of the socio-economic system. Findings. The conducted studies show that the main destructive factors weakening the business resilience in war are: the unpredictability of the security situation in the country, lack of own capital and expensive credit funds, lack of enough solvent customers in the domestic market, destruction of supply chains, as well as long and expensive logistics. Meanwhile, the unblocking of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea in the late summer of 2022 became the driving force for strengthening the resilience of domestic businesses to the shock of the war, boosting the export activity of Ukrainian companies. The destructive factors weakening the resilience of the Ukrainian socio-economic system in 2014–2021 and after the beginning of the large-scale war in Ukraine are characterized. The article reveals that the decrease in the social resilience of Ukraine to the shock of the 2022 war has become both the cause and the effect of the decrease in the solvency of the population and its sociopsychological maladjustment, has aggravated the problems with the migration of Ukrainians abroad, and has created the distortions in the labor market. The article proves that the large-scale Russian war against Ukraine has decreased the resilience of domestic foreign economic activity, caused humanitarian and migration crises, and slowed down the dynamic of the Ukrainian economy. The regions have faced significant losses of endogenous capacity. Practical implications. The article emphasizes the objective need to review the country’s macroeconomic strategy in terms of securing its long-term economic stability and thus improving its resilience to new possible shocks and threats. It also offers and substantiates the drivers limiting the resilience of the Ukrainian socio-economic system in the current conditions, including deregulation of economic activity, mobilization of resources to improve the country’s fiscal situation, increase of national savings to curb inflation, control of capital outflow from the country, accelerated integration of the domestic businesses with global production, trade, and financial networks to stabilize the dynamics of the country’s economy and restore its resilience. Originality/value. The value of the study lies in the establishment and analysis of the cause-and-effect relationship between the capacity of the drivers of a socio-economic system’s resilience and the actual results (consequences) of the impact of the shock on the development of the system.