Determining the export potential of the Russian Federation’s nuclear energy sector amid geopolitical crisis

In the article, the author conducts an analysis of the national nuclear characteristics of the Republic of Bulgaria, addressing the prospects of nuclear energy in the country, its strategic position in the national energy policy and the envisioned development for the construction of new nuclear power plants. It further considers public opinion on nuclear energy. The composition and institutional positioning of the national regulatory body are delineated, with particular attention paid to the safeguards ensuring its indepen- dence within the administrative framework of the state. The legislation in the Republic of Bulgaria that regulates the use of nuclear energy is notably extensive. In addition to the main nuclear law, public relations are also regulated by other laws, further elaborated through an array of subordinate normative acts. The article proceeds to outline, albeit briefly, the principal constitutional provisions, statutory laws, and regulatory by-laws pertinent to the licensing stages of nuclear power plants. Moreover, the analysis extends to the salient characteristics of the nuclear projects planned for implementation, issues arising in the context of contractual arrangements related to construction, as well as the national public procurement procedure for the construction of nuclear power plants. The discourse also encompasses the increasingly salient issue of small modular reactors with the author present the extent to which the country is interested in their implementa- tion and the challenges facing their licensing and implementation.

This is an exclusively prepared special issue containing papers selected from two well-established events, namely, International Conference on Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems (ICENES) and International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources (NURER) and some invited papers in order to make a unique source to reflect the progress in the area of novel nuclear energy technologies. ICENES, with a long scientific tradition, started in 1978 as an autonomous, self-organized event by a group of independent nuclear scientists. The goal was to find unconventional new routes for improving the use of the atomic energy beyond the commercial grounds. It was evident that the field of “strong interactions” still has a broad way for further developments to harness the most powerful source of energy of our universe, in a safe way and with better use of natural resources. The Nuclear Field is plenty of opportunities, and no free from risks, and it is the spirit of human vocation to explore those domains where new findings can change some essential aspects of our world, as is the case of Energy. Nuclear energy is considered the ultimate energy to secure the future of the mankind. Hence, considerable research activities and international collaboration are continuing on innovative nuclear energy systems, such as fusion energy, fusion-fission hybrids, GEN-IV reactors, space nuclear reactors, and power systems and accelerator-driven systems. Asian countries are considerably progressing in the construction of new nuclear reactor as well as in the research and the development of innovative nuclear energy technologies. A sort of new international merging is needed to recover capability and potential in this field of Physics and Technology, which should play an important role in coping with the energy problem and its environmental effects. NURER is a relatively younger one, which was initiated in 2010 as an independent event to look inside the long-term future of energy problems, without forgetting to bridge the gap between the present time and the future, parallel to the ICENES series in alternating years. Both are unique conferences in their nature, considering that nuclear energy, and other newly emerging alternative and renewable energy technologies as complementing and not competing directions with each other. On that way, ICENES and NURER conferences represent two alternating fora, where present and future technologies and systems are discussed under the same umbrella and establish a bridge with closer communication and mutual understanding between nuclear and renewable energy communities. The mankind needs both of them. In that sense, both conferences cover a wide range of topics related to nuclear power production; nuclear hydrogen production; hydrogen energy, energy efficiency, and management; solar energy; wind energy; hydrogen production and storage; renewable energy; fuel cells; bio-energy, etc. In closing, this particular special issue aims to make a unique collection on “progress in novel nuclear energy technologies” from the papers selected from the above listed conferences along with some invited papers which have peer-reviewed, improved, enhanced, and accepted for publication in IJER. The guest editor would like to take this opportunity to warmly thank the editor-in-chief, Prof Dr Ibrahim Dincer; Journal Manager, Peter Creaton; and the authors of the special issue papers to make this special issue a fruitful outcome.

The problems of ensuring the growth of the export potential of investment projects of nuclear power plants in the global markets of nuclear and energy construction by modeling and managing the organizational and economic reliability of their life cycles at the preinvestment phase are investigated. The relevance of this topic is determined by a significant level of uncertainty in the field of reliability of the imp- lementation of international investment projects of nuclear power plants, when more than 60% of nuclear reactors in the world are being built with a delay in construction and with an increase in costs. The aim of the research is to develop methodological approaches and practical re- commendations for modeling and integrated management of indicators of organizational and economic reliability of the construction of nuclear power facilities in the global NPP market at pre-investment stages. The article demonstrates the scientific results: a methodology for modeling the organizational and economic reliabi- lity of the life cycle of industrial construction of nuclear power plants; features and development trends of this type of industrial construction in the global NPP market; recommendations in the field of investment management of indust- rial construction to increase the organizational and economic reliability of NPP construction based on a controlled factor space and multicriteria optimization of calendar schedules. The investigated conceptual approach in the field of modeling and managing the organizational and economic reliability of the life cycles of industrial construction and operation of nuclear power plants in global markets is defined as a promising market tool for increasing the competitiveness of Russian divisions of Rosatom State Corporation. This implies ensuring the growth of industrial construction of nuclear power plants on the international market from the current share of Rosatom State Corporation of 26% (130 billion US dollars) to 40–50% for the period up to 2035, by increasing the organizational and economic reliability of the implementation of these types investment projects.

Delays and cost overruns remain a defining challenge of nuclear power plant (NPP) construction, despite nuclear energy’s strategic role in low-carbon energy systems. This paper evaluates empirical evidence in order to identify the most influential delay drivers and to critically evaluate how these factors interact across the project life cycle. The analysis incorporates construction and project-management research, risk-register analyses, historical cost-escalation studies, regulatory and institutional research, and recent macroeconomic assessments. Across the literature, the most consistently cited delay drivers include design immaturity and change, weaknesses in project management and interface coordination, regulatory uncertainty, supply-chain and productivity constraints, first-of-a-kind (FOAK) technology challenges, and broader macro-political instability. The review also identifies methodological fragmentation, insufficient integration between project-internal and national-level factors, and limited quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of specific project-control tools. Building on these insights, the paper argues for a layered and integrated approach to schedule-risk assessment and concludes by outlining implications for future research, including recommendations relevant for work on project controls in nuclear construction.

The article aims to evaluate the prospects of construction of a nuclear power plant in Lithuania and the possible benefits, as well as to analyse the decisive factors of development of nuclear energy in Europe and worldwide. Attention is paid to the increasingly stringent regulation of the development of nuclear energy, which may play a role in the growing competition among the nuclear power plants built in Lithuania, Russia and Belarus. The article ends with the conclusion that despite the high costs of construction of nuclear power plants, pending problems of disposal of spent nuclear fuel, rapid development of renewable resources and other factors, nuclear energy will retain its role in the energy balances of the countries in the region. The article also gives a positive assessment of the possibilities of construction of a nuclear power plant in Lithuania.

The article is dedicated to the formation of the regulatory and legal framework for nuclear energy in the Kyrgyz Republic, which becomes particularly relevant in the context of global challenges in energy security and climate change. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in nuclear energy as an alternative source of energy, which necessitates the development of a clear and effective legal framework. The authors analyze the regulatory and legal basis (RLB) of the energy sector of the Kyrgyz Republic. The need for the development of a new Law of the Kyrgyz Republic on Nuclear Energy is noted. It is proposed to actively consider the legislation of foreign countries, such as Russia, Western countries, and Japan "On Nuclear Energy." For the construction of nuclear power plants, it is necessary to create a working group that includes highly qualified specialists from foreign countries and subsequently develop a technical and economic justification for the nuclear project. The research problem lies in the insufficient development of the regulatory legal acts governing nuclear energy in the country and the lack of a unified approach to creating a safe and effective system. This creates uncertainties in regulation and hinders the attraction of investments in this area. The aim of the research is to analyze the existing regulatory and legal framework, identify its shortcomings, and develop recommendations for its improvement. To achieve this goal, methods of comparative analysis and critical review of existing literature were used, as well as expert interviews with representatives of the energy sector. The results of the research showed that the current regulatory and legal framework is insufficient to ensure the safe use of nuclear energy. Gaps in the legislation have been identified that may hinder the development of nuclear energy and pose risks to safety. Key conclusions include the need for the development of a new Law on Nuclear Energy, the active use of international experience, as well as the creation of a working group involving highly qualified specialists for developing the technical and economic justification for new projects in this area. These recommendations can contribute to the formation of a reliable and safe regulatory and legal framework, which, in turn, will facilitate the development of nuclear energy in the Kyrgyz Republic.

Since 2000, swathes of energy experts, government officials, industry representatives and journalists have predicted the emergence of a global ‘nuclear renaissance.’ Nuclear energy was said to be on the precipice of a new era of development, characterised by widespread construction of new nuclear reactors and a concomitant increase in global nuclear capacity. Despite this expectation, there is little evidence to date which suggests that a revival of nuclear power has taken place in the regions of Western Europe and North America in the way that the rhetoric depicted. This thesis therefore seeks to firstly establish that there is a disjuncture between the rhetoric and reality of the nuclear renaissance in Western Europe and North America, and secondly, to explain why this disjuncture exists. Academic and journalistic debate over recent developments in civil nuclear energy policy has tended to focus on two key reasons for why there has not been a widespread expansion of nuclear energy in these regions. Firstly, that the nuclear disaster at Fukushima in 2011 reignited concerns over nuclear safety, thereby eroding public and political support for nuclear new build. Secondly, that the economic problems facing nuclear development continued to act as a major disincentive to the construction of new nuclear power plants. However, the global applicability of these two issues means that neither of these explanations can explain why the nuclear renaissance appears to have failed in Western Europe and North America, while nuclear new build is expanding in other parts of the world. Moreover, the revival of safety concerns post-Fukushima fails to explain why there was little evidence of a nuclear renaissance taking place prior to March 2011. This thesis provides a contribution to knowledge by adopting a more holistic and inductive approach for understanding why there is a disjuncture between the expectation and reality of the nuclear renaissance in Western Europe and North America. It challenges existing explanations for the failure of the nuclear renaissance as being simplistic, mono-causal and a-historical. This thesis disputes the idea that the absence of a widespread expansion of nuclear energy and the apparent failure of the nuclear renaissance can be attributed to any one problem or event. Instead, it embraces the simple premise that a broad range of contextual factors must be explored in order to fully understand why the rhetoric of a nuclear renaissance has not become a reality. An extensive analysis of government, industry and media documents published from 1945 onwards, as well as interviews with experts in nuclear energy policy, was undertaken in order to establish a better understanding of how and why nuclear energy development changes over time. Through this process, it became clear that the reasons typically cited for explaining changes in nuclear development are ‘nuclear-specific factors’. That is, factors relating directly to the construction and operation of nuclear power plants – such as the economics of nuclear energy, the safety of nuclear power plants, and the storage and disposal of nuclear waste. While these factors undeniably play an important role in influencing nuclear new build, focusing solely on these nuclear-specific factors obscures the impact of broader social, political, and contextual changes on nuclear energy development. This thesis draws upon political science literature to argue that the changing trajectory of nuclear energy development has also been influenced by broader contextual shifts in the post-war era. The impact of four ‘contextual factors’ on nuclear power are examined: the rise of environmentalism, the decline in public trust in government, changes in risk perception, and the rise of neoliberalism. Each of these contextual shifts have changed the way in which agents think about and respond to the issue of nuclear power. Consequently, this thesis argues that both nuclear-specific factors and contextual factors are important in explaining change in civil nuclear energy development. All of these factors are dynamic and interactive, mutually shaping and influencing one another. Moreover, both of these groups of factors have contributed to the failure of the nuclear renaissance in Western Europe and North America. The ongoing presence of these challenges will continue to hamper the future success of civil nuclear energy development, and prevent a nuclear renaissance from taking place.

Chapter 7 begins with a brief description of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It then briefly explains the activities of Iran and a few other countries in the nuclear field, construction of nuclear power plants in Iran, and their fate after the revolution. It also describes the revival of Iran’s nuclear program nearly a decade later, which included construction of a high-pressure reactor along with a heavy water plant, and a uranium enrichment facility that led to Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West. The chapter also includes an appendix that provides the basic technical background necessary to understand the fundamentals of nuclear technology and generating nuclear energy. The author argues because the advanced countries have progressed in building and using nuclear reactors, they possess expertise in this field. They tend to monopolize the nuclear technology and get raw materials from the Third World to use for their own energy needs. As the oil-exporting countries deplete their oil reserves for consumption and exports, they will be more dependent on the advanced countries for nuclear and other energy alternative technologies in the future.

This article examines the current state of nuclear power in the Middle East. The construction of nuclear power plants is closely related to the issues of energy security in the region. The necessity and prerequisites for diversification of the energy balance in the countries of the region, as well as the need for a reliable source of electricity, which will completely solve the problem of growing demand, are analyzed. The authors analyze the role of the Russian Federation in the development of nuclear energy in the Middle East and assess the prospects in the market of services in this sector, consider cooperation in the nuclear sector with all states of the region, identify the advantages and prospects of Russia’s possible participation in the implementation of nuclear power plant construction projects in the Middle East. The most promising direction for the development of nuclear energy today is the use of fast neutron technology and a closed cycle that allows the processing of spent nuclear fuel. The possession of such technologies has a significant potential for export and international cooperation and is a significant technological advantage of Russia. Rosatom group has competitive advantages in the market of nuclear technologies, including in the Middle East, as it has competencies in all parts of the production and technological chain of nuclear energy. The Russian Federation participates in many projects related to the construction of nuclear power plants and related infrastructure and plays a significant role in the development of nuclear energy in the Middle East, cooperates with all countries in the region that are promising for cooperation in this direction, having intergovernmental agreements, which include the construction of nuclear power plants with such States as Egypt, Jordan, Iran, UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and memorandums of cooperation with Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman.

The impact of TMI upon the public acceptance of nuclear power

Low-emission nuclear power industry is called upon to play an important role in the development of the global energy industry and contribute to the solution of the problem of decarbonization of economic growth. For countries betting on the development of nuclear energy, a critical issue is the sustainability of nuclear fuel supplies in the medium and long term. The countries of Central Asia, primarily Kazakhstan and, to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan, have significant resource of natural uranium and are geographically close to large consumers of nuclear fuel in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Both countries plan to reach carbon neutrality: Kazakhstan – by 2060, Uzbekistan – by 2050, which may be achieved through the construction of nuclear power plants. The article considers the strategy for the development of the uranium complex in both countries, the core of which is the wide access of foreign investors to the development of uranium reserves in exchange for access to export markets and modern technologies. The achievements of Kazakhstan in increasing uranium production, the barriers to the development of the national state company Kazatomprom upward the technological chain, the prospects for nuclear energy in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are analyzed. It is concluded that the current energy crisis enhances the global interest to the development of nuclear generation, but also emphasizes the importance of an adequate assessment of the availability of uranium reserves and the prospects for diversifying its supplies to the world market.

International cooperation is one of the most important and promising areas of activity of the state nuclear energy corporation ROSATOM (ROSATOM). The Corporation strives to become one of the international companies perceived as global technology leaders. Sanctions against the Russian economy are unprecedented. In the spring of 2023, sanctions were imposed by the United States against five organizations that are part of the ROSATOM. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of sanctions on the international activities of the ROSATOM. The article provides a list of international markets where the ROSATOM operates in 2021-2022. The main competitors in the international markets of the Сorporation are identified: the natural uranium market, the uranium enrichment services market, the nuclear fuel fabrication market. An analysis of the position of the ROSATOM in selected segments of the global nuclear energy market in 2012-2022 was carried out. The main technical characteristics and sources of financing for the ROSATOM projects for the construction of nuclear power plants (NPPs) abroad are presented. The article uses materials from public annual reports of the ROSATOM for 2012-2022, as well as the Report on the State of the Global Nuclear Industry for 2022. Statistical methods were used to determine the share of the ROSATOM in segments of the global nuclear energy market; tabular and graphical methods were used to visualize the research results. In 2022, the ROSATOM was the leader in the world markets for uranium enrichment and conversion and had the largest portfolio of projects for the construction of nuclear power plants abroad. The main competitors of the ROSATOM in the international nuclear power plant construction market are China, France, South Korea, the USA and Japan. However, despite the successful activities of the ROSATOM, restrictions on access to Western technologies and finance create additional difficulties. In response to the imposed restrictions, the Corporation is actively developing domestic analogues and looking for ways to cooperate with countries that do not support sanctions.

Introduction. The article examines the development of the nuclear industry and the successes of the State Corporation “Rosatom” which allows Russia not only to ensure the growth of this important sector of industry and economy, but also to occupy a leading position in the world nuclear energy markets. In addition to the economic effect, this direction of state activity allows solving a wide range of foreign policy tasks. The article analyzes how the Russian state, using the potential of its nuclear industry and its competitive advantages, simultaneously realizes its interests in the Middle East. Methods and materials. During preparing the article, the authors used a synthesis of institutional and systemic approaches, a comparative historical approach, research in the development of diplomacy and the balance of “powers” in the foreign policy of the state, as well as predictive analysis within the problem field of the implementation of the foreign policy instrument under consideration. Analysis. At present, state corporation Rosatom is one of the leaders in the global nuclear industry and is implementing projects for the construction of 35 power units around the world, including the Middle East. Nuclear energy programs are currently planned or are under way in six countries in the region. Of the projects noted, Rosatom has firm agreements with Egypt, Iran and Turkey. Also, the Russian leadership is optimistic about the possibility of concluding contracts for the construction of nuclear power plants in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The competitive advantages of a Russian company have a wide range from technological advantages to the most flexible terms of cooperation, regardless of the foreign policy and global conjuncture. At the same time, the activities of Rosatom are converted into political advantages that ensure the strengthening of Russia’s influence in the Middle East region. Discussion. The authors assess the further development of the Middle East programs for the development of the peaceful atom, Russia’s participation in these processes, as well as the identification of associated risks. Results. The authors conclude that by using and developing nuclear energy, Russia is promoting its national interests in the context of the continuing negative economic and political background in the world. The country’s leading positions in this industry make it possible to build favorable forecasts regarding the application of nuclear energy in the field of foreign policy, including the Middle East, where Russia has many competitive advantages. Authors’ contribution. D.A. Mirgorod developed the content of the article and carried out its scientific edition. E.F. Parubochaya analyzed cases related to the implementation by Russia of nuclear power plant projects in Iran and Turkey.

We investigate the heterogeneity across countries and time in the relationship between mother’s fertility and children’s educational attainment—the quantity-quality (Q-Q) trade-off—by using census data from 17 countries in Asia and Latin America, with data from each country spanning multiple census years. For each country-year, we estimate micro-level instrumental variables models predicting secondary school attainment using number of siblings of the child, instrumented by the sex composition of the first two births in the family. We then analyze correlates of Q-Q trade-off patterns across countries. On average, one additional sibling in the family reduces the probability of secondary education by 6 percentage points for girls and 4 percentage points for boys. This Q-Q trade-off is significantly associated with the level of son preference, slightly decreasing over time and with fertility, but it does not significantly differ by educational level of the country.

Just past its 50th birthday, commercial nuclear energy is experiencing a tentative rejuvenation that could result in a greater role as a global source of electricity. Skeptics still harbor many of the objections that have slowed or stopped the construction of new nuclear power plants, but rising concerns about the cost and security of energy supplies and global climate change have reframed the debate in terms more favorable for nuclear power advocates. As a result, the question of whether governments should encourage the construction of new nuclear power plants is no longer off the table in developed countries such as Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For other developed countries such as France and Japan, and for countries with fast-growing economies such as China and India, nuclear energy has remained a central component of energy policy. For example, to achieve its goal of generating 4% of electricity from nuclear power, China plans to add more than 30 new nuclear plants by 2020 to the 11 currently in operation or under construction. India’s goal is to supply 25% of its electricity from nuclear power by 2050. Worldwide there are now 440 nuclear power reactors operating in 31 countries and producing a combined capacity of 367 gigawatts electric, or about 16% of the world’s supply of electricity. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—the agency of the United Nations chartered to promote cooperation on nuclear issues—estimates that at least 60 new nuclear plants will be constructed in the next 15 years. Given the world’s growing demand for electricity, however, this added capacity will still account for only 17% of global electricity use.