Determination of the dependence between climatic factors and Covid-19 disease incidence

Abstract

The purpose of research consists in definition and an estimation of climatic factors influence on disease incidence of Covid-19 on an example of Mykolaiv city. In research we used such scientific methods: theoretical methods: analysis, synthesis, monitoring, systematization, generalization. For research facility, were held by calculations based on software Microsoft Excel. The calculations were performed using the formula correlation. Results. The study examines the influence of climatic factors such as air temperature, humidity, solar radiation activity, wind speed, rainfall, and length of daylight. For the pair «Disease incidence – Temperature» the correlation coefficient is −0.74. For the pair «Disease incidence − Solar Radiation» correlation coefficient is −0.71. For the pair «Disease incidence – Daylight hours» correlation coefficient is −0.70. Humidity, as a derivative of air temperature, is evidenced by a comparison of decline periods and growth of these values. In the spring, along with the increase in temperature, the humidity dropped, and in the fall, when the air temperature dropped, the humidity increased. This factor also affected the spread of the virus in the second half of the year, when the humidity increased the virus began to spread faster. For the pair «Disease incidence – Humidity» correlation coefficient is +0.73 (average direct correlation). Other climatic factors, such as wind speed and rainfall, have not been shown to have a significant effect on the rate of disease spread. For the pair «Disease incidence − Wind speed» correlation coefficient is +0.32, which corresponds to a weak direct correlation. For the pair «Disease incidence − Rainfall» correlation coefficient is −0.30, which indicates a weak inverse correlation. Conclusion. The results of the study show that the reduction of disease incidence is observed at high temperatures, high activity of solar radiation, and prolonged daylight, which determines the conditions for the prevention of such diseases and will improve the quality of life to achieve sustainable development.