Determination of Quebec's Quarterly Real GDP and Analysis of the Business Cycle, 1948–1980

Abstract

This study aims to consolidate the economic history of Quebec over the period from 1948 to 2019 with the emphasis on the period 1948–1980 for which we estimated the quarterly GDP for the province. Unlike previous economic studies relating to this period, we identify the chronology of the economic cycle of Quebec by estimating the real quarterly GDP by using the method of Ginsburgh (Appl Stat 22(3):368–374, 1973) as modified by De Carufel and Lizotte (in: Paper presented at Congrès de la Société canadienne de Science Économique, Montréal, 1982). Our analysis of the duration and intensity of recessions confirms the presence of regional cycles in Canada. Il shows also that the business cycle of Quebec is more strongly correlated with the US cycle than with the cycle in the rest of Canada for the period prior to 1980 and more correlated to the cycle of the rest of Canada onwards. We provide insights on why this trend changed over time.