Determinants of public interest in emerging and re-emerging arboviral diseases in Europe: A spatio-temporal analysis of cross-sectional time series data.

Abstract

Climate change, the resulting geographical expansion of arthropod disease vectors, and increasing international mobility are contributing to the emergence of arboviral diseases in Europe. Public interest in vector-borne diseases and a subsequent gain of awareness and knowledge are essential to control outbreaks but had not yet been systematically assessed prior to this analysis. Trends, patterns, and determinants of public interest in six emerging and re-emerging arboviral diseases were assessed in a spatio-temporal analysis of Google Trends data from 30 European countries between 2008 and 2020 while controlling for potential confounders. Only public interest in endemic arboviral diseases in Europe displays seasonal patterns and has been increasing since 2008, while no significant patterns or trends could be determined for public interest in non-endemic diseases. The main drivers for public interest in all six analysed arboviral diseases are reported case rates, and public interest drops rapidly as soon as cases decline. For Germany, the correlation of public interest and the geographical distribution of locally-acquired reported cases of endemic arboviral infections could be shown on a sub-country level. The results of the analysis indicate that public interest in arboviral diseases in Europe is heavily impacted by perceived susceptibility on a temporal as well as on a spatial level. This result may be crucial for the design of future public health interventions to alert the public to the increasing risk of infection with arboviral diseases.