Abstract
The authors extrapolated the lognormal relationship between size of tumor and probability of metastasis to include small tumors. Extrapolation was performed by using linear weighted regression analysis techniques to estimate prediction intervals for the predicted probabilities. Tumors detected at 1 cm in diameter had a 7.31% probability of metastasis (95% prediction interval [PI], 4.36% to 11.6%). Tumors detected at 5 mm in diameter had a 1.23% probability of metastasis (95% PI, 0.45% to 3.0%). Tumors detected at 2 mm had a 0.049% probability of metastasis (95% PI, 0.00705% to 0.267%). This analysis shows a major reduction in metastasis probability when tumors are detected at small sizes. These results suggest that detection of very early tumors can substantially reduce the likelihood of metastatic spread.
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