Abstract
Abstract. The main aim of this paper is to test economic benefits of landslide prevention measures vs. post-event emergency actions. To this end, detailed- and large-scale analyses were performed in a training area located in the northeastern Italian pre-Alps that was hit by an exceptional rainfall event occurred in November 2010. On the detailed scale, a landslide reactivated after 2010 event was investigated. Numerical modeling demonstrated that remedial works carried out after the landslide – water-removal intervention such as a drainage trench – could have improved slope stability if applied before its occurrence. Then, a cost/benefit analysis was employed. It defined that prevention would have been economically convenient compared to a non-preventive and passive attitude, allowing a 30 % saving relative to total costs. On the large scale, one of the most affected areas after 2010 event was considered. A susceptibility analysis was performed using a simple probabilistic model, which allowed to highlight the main landslide conditioning factors and the most hazardous and vulnerable sectors. In particular, such low-cost analysis demonstrated that almost 50 % of landslides occurred after 2010 event could be foreseen and allowed to roughly quantify benefits from regional landslide prevention. However, a large-scale approach is insufficient to carry out a quantitative cost/benefit analysis, for which a detailed case-by-case risk assessment is needed. The here proposed approaches could be used as a means of preventive soil protection in not only the investigated case study but also all those hazardous areas where preventive measures are needed.
Highlights
Landslides are one of the most dramatic natural hazards along with earthquakes and floods
We have considered the effects of an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Italian pre-Alps of the Vicenza province (NE Italy) in 2010 (Floris et al, 2012, 2013) to perform a cost/benefit analysis of landslide prevention vs. post-event actions
We dealt with detailed and large-scale analyses aimed to quantify possible benefits from landslide prevention: to this end we have considered the 2010 exceptional rainfall event that hit the pre-Alps sectors of the Vicenza province (NE Italy), triggering hundreds of instabilities
Summary
Landslides are one of the most dramatic natural hazards along with earthquakes and floods. Previous years’ measurements have been thoroughly collected thanks to GIS databases, web information sharing and a greater awareness of landslide risk This attitude allowed some authors to calculate the costs of damages due to slope instabilities within many environments around the world: from 1972 to 2007, landslides and rockfalls cost EUR 520 million and caused 32 fatalities in Switzerland (Hilker et al, 2009), while in the United States a USD 1–2 billion expense in economic losses and about 25–50 deaths per year have been estimated (Schuster and Fleming, 1986), e.g., USD 9 million expense in only direct cost losses in Colorado during 2010 (Highland, 2013). Historical research indicates that more than 50 593 people died, went missing or were injured in 2580 landslides and floods in Italy, where 26.3 % of the 8102 municipalities have been hit by slope instabilities between 1279 and 2002 (Guzzetti et al, 2005b); economic loss related to the single destructive landslide at Ancona (Marche region) in 1982
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