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Abstract
This study uses administrative data from Michigan to present a descriptive analysis of recidivism hazard among a large cohort of individuals convicted of sex-related offenses (ICSOs) ( N = 23,621) with an average follow-up of 10.5 years, up to a maximum of 15 years. Using Bayesian discrete-time survival models, we find within 15 years 19% of this cohort of ICSOs was returned to prison, for either a new crime or technical violation, or received a new probation sentence. Sexual recidivism was rare. With the caveat that demographic information on the sample was not available for statistical controls, we found risk was higher among those released from prison without supervision (“max outs”). As the hazard of recidivism was relatively higher in the first year at risk, and then gradually dissipated, the findings reiterate the importance of front-loading supervision services and intensity toward the earlier periods of time at risk in the community.
Published Version
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