Density dependence of seed dispersal and fecundity profoundly alters the spread dynamics of plant populations

Abstract

Abstract Plant population spread has fundamental ecological and evolutionary importance. Both determinants of plant population spread, fecundity and dispersal, can be density‐dependent, which should cause feedback between population densities and spread dynamics. Yet it is poorly understood how density‐dependence affects key characteristics of spread: spread rate at which the location of the furthest forward individual moves, edge depth (the geographical area over which individuals contribute to spread) and population continuity (occupancy of the spreading population). We present a general modelling framework for analysing the effects of density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal on population spread and parameterize this framework with experimental data from a common‐garden experiment using five wind‐dispersed plant species grown at different densities. Our model shows that density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal strongly affect all three population spread characteristics for both exponential and lognormal dispersal kernels. Spread rate and edge depth are strongly correlated but show weaker correlations with population continuity. Positive density‐dependence of fecundity increases all three spread characteristics. Increasingly positive density‐dependence of dispersal increases spread rate and edge depth but generally decreases population continuity. Density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal are largely additive in their effect on spread characteristics. For population continuity, the joint effects of density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal are somewhat contingent on the dispersal kernel. The common‐garden experiment and the experimentally parameterized mechanistic dispersal model revealed density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal across study species. All study species exhibited negatively density‐dependent fecundity, but they differed qualitatively in the density‐dependence of dispersal distance and probability of long‐distance dispersal. The negative density‐dependence of fecundity and dispersal found for three species reinforced each other in reducing spread rate and edge depth. The positively density‐dependent dispersal found for two species markedly increased spread rate and edge depth. Population continuity was hardly affected by population density in all study species except Crepis sancta in which it was strongly reduced by negatively density‐dependent fecundity. Synthesis. Density‐dependent fecundity and seed dispersal profoundly alter population spread. In particular, positively density‐dependent dispersal should promote the spread and genetic diversity of plant populations migrating under climate change but also complicate the control of invasive species.