Abstract
Climate change is the main fundamental human development challenge of the 21st century. Sri Lanka is a developing island nation subject to tropical climate patterns; highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. High variability of rainfall patterns and increasing temperature experienced during the recent past in Sri Lanka could be one of the consequences of global climate change with the increase of Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main objective of this study is to investigate the possibility to use the dengue prevalence as an evidence of climate change in Sri Lanka by establishing the correlation of climate factors and dengue incidence. Seven districts were randomly selected across all climatic zones for the study and dengue incidence, rainfall, and temperature statistics of last 10 years were collected from relevant governmental institutions. Data analysis was done using SPSS (version 21) and R (Rx64 3.5.1) Statistical Software. According to the findings of the study, rainfall and temperature difference have a statistically significant correlation with dengue incidents. Therefore, dengue prevalence can be used as an evidence of climate change in Sri Lanka. Hence, authorities should take necessary steps to mainstream Climate change into development policies in all sectors for a sustainable future. KEYWORDS: Adaptation, Climate change, Dengue, Mitigation, UNFCCC
Highlights
Climate change; the ultimate outcome of global warming is globally recognized as the fundamental challenge for socio-economic development of human in the 21st century
Sri Lanka is a developing island nation subject to tropical climate patterns which are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and ranked as fourth highest Climate Risk County in the word (Eckstein et al, 2017)
The objective of this study is to find the relationship between climate change as addressed by the temperature and rainfall variations and the incidence of dengue
Summary
Climate change; the ultimate outcome of global warming is globally recognized as the fundamental challenge for socio-economic development of human in the 21st century. The relationship between climate factors and mosquitoes was well established and these insects are exquisitely sensitive to climate (Pontes et al, 2000; Reiter 2001; Bouma 2003; Craig et al, 2004; Pascual et al, 2006; Confalonieri et al, 2007) Throughout this century public health researchers have understood that climate circumscribes the distribution of mosquito-borne diseases, while weather affects the timing and intensity of outbreaks (Gill 1920a; Gill 1920b; Dobson and Carper, 1993) Dengue is one such mosquito-borne viral disease that has rapidly spread in many parts the world. The Aedes mosquito is commonly found in urban settlements where it maintains a man–mosquito–man relationship This relationship creates a system that continuously makes dengue infections a reemerging public health threat; 20 million cases are estimated to occur each year (WHO, 1996)
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