Dendrohydrological Reconstructions Based on Tree-Ring Width (TRW) Chronologies of Narrow-Leaved Ash in the Sava River Basin (Croatia)

Abstract

Current flood risk management is based on statistical models and assessments of the risk of occurrence over a given time period, although with very short measurement periods, usually following catastrophic events. Ongoing monitoring of basic hydrological (river-water level and streamflow) and climate data are the basis for sustainable water management and long-term flood control planning. The lack of data has proven to be particularly negative during this period of global climate change, when non-seasonal flooding (during summer) is becoming increasingly frequent, and the resulting damage greater. The aim of this study was to analyse the possible use of tree ring width chronologies of trees growing in floodplain areas to reconstruct hydrodynamic variables (river-water level and streamflow). The study analysed the influence of climatic and hydrological variables on the growth of narrow-leaved ash (Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl) in the Sava River basin. The results indicate the significant potential of narrow-leaved ash tree-ring width chronologies to reconstruct the summer streamflows of the Sava River (R2 = 0.45). These results can serve to develop long-term data series on the summer streamflows of the river, thereby enabling better insight into its spatial and temporal dynamics with the goal of more successful, sustainable management of floodplain areas.