Democracy on the line? Political legitimacy and support for military rule in Africa

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ABSTRACT Recent coups in West Africa and the Sahel Region raise questions about the future of democracy on the continent. This article investigates predictors for public support for military rule. Instead of elite role, it emphasizes citizens’ role in military coups and links attitudes on executive legitimacy and support for military rule. Although public opinion on the executive can inform us about the link between dissatisfaction and pro-military intervention sentiments in different regime types, little work has been done on Africa despite the presence of young democracies and the resurgence of coups. Across 34 African countries, there is high trust for the military, but most people reject military rule and support democracy, hence the puzzle. Building on public opinion, protests, and military coups literature, I explore the relationship between three measures of dissatisfaction with the executive and support for military rule. I find that perceived executive violation of the law, corruption in the president’s office, and the president’s underperformance influence support for military rule with trust in the military as an underlying factor. The findings suggest that people may support military rule, hoping for the return of accountability.