Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators

The climate crisis requires a radical transformation of our economies. Current and past minimal-state and market-based approaches have failed to deliver adequate progress. From that, a consensus is emerging: An interventionist state with green ambitions is needed to steer a green transition. Such a ‘green state’ is an approach that any country, in principle, can take irrespective of national political and economic conditions. Debate has been prolific on how this green state can be operationalized: What are the political prerequisites? What are the challenges standing in the way? Which policy tools can be used? Problematically, while the climate crisis is global, this debate has centered on the global North. I use state capacity and historical institutionalism to investigate what China tells us about green state theory. Through state capacity, I consider environmental sustainability as the latest iteration of a goal that requires a capable state. Through historical institutionalism, I emphasize the role of differing national conditions within informal and formal institutions across political, economic, social, and historical aspects. From that theoretical outset, the thesis is focused on the conditions under which states have capacity as green states in terms of ability to intervene in the economy and uphold green priorities. My intention in this PhD project is to contribute towards the realization of green states. I share the normative goal of a green state and hope to contribute to developing theory that can be used in the pursuit of green states. Informed by the case of China, I analyze how China’s political economy conditions determine its green state capacity and scrutinize whether current green state theory can account for this. I do so by answering the following research question: What does China tell us about green state theory? I apply an explorative research strategy, relying on extensive fieldwork to investigate and theorize on the green state’s intended universal applicability. I use a case-based research design considering China a critical case as it may be the country in the world most resembling a green state. Primary data were collected through 132 semi-structured interviews along with participant observations across China, Vietnam, India, Ethiopia, and Brazil. Secondary data includes policy documents and financial databases. All data were collected in both English and Chinese to expand the scope, address biases, and triangulate potentially contradicting sources. Answering my research question, I find that China’s case tells us the following: Green states can exist under a greater variety of political economy conditions than the theory currently assumes. This conclusion is based on three parts: First, China has a high capacity as a green state through its authoritarian politics, state-driven economic model, and party-state interventions, while this capacity remains challenged by intra-state resistance and from squeezing out the private sector. These conditions and challenges contradict current assumptions in green state theory. Second, from that finding, I argue that a plurality of green states can exist across the world. I conclude that green state theory does not provide a blueprint that fits all countries, but that a green state approach can be adopted differently depending on a given country’s unique political economy conditions. Third, I find that green state theory would benefit from drawing on comparative political economy and historical intuitionalism to better capture the relation between varying political economy conditions and green state practices. Concretely, I make the following findings in each of the five papers of this thesis: Paper 1 conceptually discusses key dimensions of the current green state, concluding that conditions for green state capacity exist beyond democratic and developed countries. Paper 2 analyzes China’s application of a green state approach, concluding that China’s green state capacity is threatened by its authoritarian politics, resistance from local government and SOEs, and from squeezing out the private sector. Paper 3 explores the connection between financialization and the green state, concluding that financialization of governance in China provides the conditions for the state to be capable of green investing. Paper 4 assesses the global ramifications of China’s green state approach, concluding that China’s impact includes both the provision of price-competitive green technologies and the reinforcement of a de-risking international finance approach. Paper 5 investigates how China influences other countries’ green finance practices, concluding that due to China’s political economy model, successful lessons diffuse into global policy norms. Looking forward, as China is not representative of the global South’s diversity of political economy conditions, the findings of this thesis open an avenue for development of a comparative political economy of the green state. Ultimately, green state theory should account for the relationship between political economy conditions and state capacity to carry out green transition – both in the global North and South. This thesis provides an important step toward developing a research agenda in pursuit of that goal.

The Turkish Republic emerged onto the world stage as a secular and centralized nation state in the early 1920s from the remnants of the multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-lingual Ottoman Empir...

Following the UK's move to quasi-federalism in the 1990s, the Parliament and Assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland gained powers over the promotion of equality of opportunity in the exercise of devolved functions. Constitutional law also placed human rights obligations on the regional administrations. Analysis reveals that the first years of devolution have seen a rapid growth and territorialization of regulatory bodies, such as commissioners, inspectorates, ombudsmen – whose remit includes these cross-cutting issues. Given the rise of distinctive sub-state ‘equalities infrastructures’ in the devolved nations, a key question is whether the dynamics of self-reinforcing feedback processes predicted by historical institutionalism offer the potential for more effective equality and human rights practice at the meso-level. While the discussion reveals a significant increase in the state's capacity to monitor and regulate, examples of innovation and policy transfer – and a cautious, yet generally positive, assessment by policy actors – a number of issues and shortcomings are also identified. These include limited government oversight and a lack of inter-agency coordination. Overall, the emerging evidence suggests that, from a functional institutionalist perspective, devolution has made advances in embedding the regulation of equality and human rights in the regional state; however, historical institutionalism indicates that, while devolution may be viewed as a ‘critical juncture’, notions of ‘path dependency’ towards more effective equalities practice are, as yet, unfounded and significant challenges remain.

Since the 1990s, historical institutionalism has established itself as a frequently used approach in the study of European integration. One basic tenet of those who use this approach is to take history seriously in the study of European integration—in particular how historical choices on institutionalizing particular procedures and policies explain subsequent patterns of agency. Looking at the manner in which time and institutional structures affect outcomes is central in this approach. In the context of the European Union (EU), the works that have adopted this approach have typically examined developments in policies and institutions over time. While sharing with other institutionalist approaches (such as rational choice and sociological institutionalism) the recognition that “institutions matter,” historical institutionalism introduced particular concepts such as “path dependence” and “critical juncture” into the study of the EU. The distinct contribution here is the capacity of historical institutionalism to explain the persistence of institutional structures and the continuity of policies as well as the reasons for change. In the study of European integration, this approach has been adopted in many areas of research, ranging from studies about the legal foundations of the EU, the workings within institutions of the EU, the process of enlargement, to analyses of various sectors of EU policy-making, and the study of the multiple crises confronting the integration project in the 2010s.

▪ Abstract This article provides an overview of recent developments in historical institutionalism. First, it reviews some distinctions that are commonly drawn between the “historical” and the “rational choice” variants of institutionalism and shows that there are more points of tangency than typically assumed. However, differences remain in how scholars in the two traditions approach empirical problems. The contrast of rational choice's emphasis on institutions as coordination mechanisms that generate or sustain equilibria versus historical institutionalism's emphasis on how institutions emerge from and are embedded in concrete temporal processes serves as the foundation for the second half of the essay, which assesses our progress in understanding institutional formation and change. Drawing on insights from recent historical institutional work on “critical junctures” and on “policy feedbacks,” the article proposes a way of thinking about institutional evolution and path dependency that provides an alternative to equilibrium and other approaches that separate the analysis of institutional stability from that of institutional change.

This article explores how historical legacies and institutional configurations impact the governance models used in implementing State aid policies for broadband in France, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The analysis is based on historical institutionalism, focusing on path dependence, critical junctures, and gradual institutional change. A comparative historical approach shows different governance models evolving due to administrative traditions and political factors. France and the United Kingdom have evolved toward decentralized models, which capitalize on institutional flexibility and strategic reforms. Conversely, Portugal and Spain face limitations from centralized structures and institutional inertia. This study elucidates the relationship between institutional structures and policy outcomes, providing policymakers with insights for addressing digital access disparities. These findings contribute to the public administration literature, emphasizing the role of timing, sequencing, and coordination in the design of effective governance frameworks and preparing for emerging challenges (such as 5G deployment) where State aid will be needed. Related Articles Kanol, D. 2022. “Narrative Strategies for Emerging Disruptive Technologies: A Case Study of Blockchain for Europe.” Politics and Policy 50, no. 5: 952–966. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12492 . Luckhurst, J. 2012. “Governance and Democratization since the 2008 Financial Crisis.” Politics & Policy 40, no. 5: 958–977. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00386.x . Zeng, J., T. Stevens, and Y. Chen. 2017. “China's Solution to Global Cyber Governance: Unpacking the Domestic Discourse of ‘Internet Sovereignty’.” Politics & Policy 45, no. 3: 432–464. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12202 .

This paper outlines an historical institutionalist (HI) research agenda for planning history. HI approaches to the understanding of institutions, path dependence, positive feedback effects in public policy, and patterned processes of institutional change offer a robust theoretical framework and a valuable set of conceptual and analytic tools for the analysis of continuity and change in public policy. Yet, to date, there has been no systematic effort to incorporate historical institutionalism into planning history research. The body of the paper proposes planning history relevant definitions of institutions, path dependence, critical junctures, and incremental change processes, outlines recent HI literature applying and extending these concepts, and frames a number of research questions for planning history that these approaches suggest. A concluding section explores the potential application and leverage of HI approaches to the study of planning history and international comparative planning studies and outlines a research agenda.

Dual dependence on low-carbon transition of small and medium enterprises in Taiwan: the policy perspective

Explaining how international institutions develop is the significant contribution of historical institutionalism (HI) to the study of contemporary world politics. HI offers two important concepts, critical juncture and path dependence, demonstrating dynamics within the institution, leading towards continuity and change. The case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Myanmar democratic crisis tells us about the impact of the crucial moments on the regional organisation and its responses. Yet, ASEAN is resistant to change. What makes it possible is the question that cannot be answered by using the HI approach. Hence, we explain by employing a theoretical framework founded upon the link between diplomatic culture and institutional legitimacy, adopted from the English School (ES) theory of International Relations (IR). This article argues that ASEAN's diplomatic culture ensures member countrie’s compliance with the Association's code of conduct and prevents external power intrusion into Southeast Asian affairs and interests. Therefore, ASEAN's institutional legitimacy can be maintained. The Association deals with the critical juncture without undertaking any fundamental change.

Biofuel regulation constitutes a critical nexus among energy security, climate policy, and agricultural development. Despite shared global pressures for decarbonization, institutional trajectories diverge markedly across nations. This study examines how path dependency and historical institutionalism explain distinct regulatory trajectories in biofuel governance across four major producers: Brazil, the United States, the European Union, and India. A comparative historical analysis spanning 1930–2025 identifies critical junctures, modes of institutional change (layering, conversion, displacement, drift), and lock-in mechanisms. The analysis draws on 487 legislative documents, institutional archives, and quantitative production series covering 95 years in Brazil and over 50 years in other jurisdictions. Three distinct patterns emerge: Brazil demonstrates the strongest path dependency through displacement, marked by critical junctures in 1933 (Instituto do Açúcar e Álcool creation), 1975 (Proálcool), and 1990 (deregulation). The United States exhibits incremental layering via Renewable Fuel Standard expansion. The European Union converted existing energy frameworks, while India’s conflicting institutional mandates prevented path creation. Lock-in mechanisms reinforce trajectories differently: Brazil’s institutional lock-in (state-controlled sugar-ethanol coordination) persisted for 57 years, whereas U.S. technological lock-in (corn-ethanol infrastructure) predominates. The study attributes 73% of policy stability variance to critical junctures. Path dependency operates through four reinforcing mechanisms: sunk infrastructure costs, political constituencies, regulatory routines, and cognitive paradigms. These mechanisms explain why similar global pressures produce divergent national outcomes. Institutional legacies constrain without determining outcomes – critical junctures open windows wherein agency becomes decisive. Findings challenge deterministic interpretations and support contingent historical institutionalism. Overcoming lock-ins requires simultaneous interventions across technological infrastructure, economic incentives, institutional mandates, and cognitive paradigms; isolated reforms fail due to reinforcing mechanisms.

Chapter seven covers historical institutionalism (HI), a new approach to international institutions that embraces overtly temporal themes like sequence, path dependence, critical junctures, legacy effects, and the importance of “founding moments.” While historical institutionalists make great strides in setting institutions in motion, this chapter argues that they remain trapped by the problem of Time tradition and moreover that timing theory can help them escape. After summarizing the rise of HI against sociological and especially rationalist treatments, it uses HI accounts of institutions of the “liberal international order” to clarify the role and status of “history” in HI, to show how HI recapitulates and narratively confronts the problem of Time, and to argue that historical institutionalists unintentionally position themselves as horologists who explain institutional faults without challenging the rationalist baseline assumption that institutions should work like near-perfect cooperation mechanisms. This depoliticizes HI and hamstrings its efforts to develop a distinctive theory of institutions. However, timing theory can help by recasting institutions as collective timing projects and by embracing a more realistic view of international-institutional possibility. In turn, HI can push several concepts and insights of timing theory further, opening the possibility not only of a more thoroughly temporal account of institutions but an institutionalist perspective on timing.

Critical junctures and path dependence in urban planning and housing policy: A review of greenbelts and New Towns in Korea’s Seoul metropolitan area

How historical legacies influence democratization, help explain continuities between different types of regimes, and delineate diverging developmental processes has garnered much attention in the recent literature on historical sociology, comparative politics, and transformation research. The renewed interest in historical legacies stands in contrast with the conceptual and theoretical vagueness of the term, however, hindering both theory building and empirical analysis. Outlining the similarities and differences within legacy arguments, this chapter begins by categorizing the different types of legacies as well as distinguishing between legacies of authoritarian rule and pre-authoritarian legacies. Next, historical legacies as part of causal explanations are examined, discussing the differing views on legacies conditions, qualities, and characteristics. Lastly, historical legacies are situated in the literature on path dependence and critical junctures, revealing fundamental theoretical differences between the concepts.

<p><em>The article analyses theoretical foundations of the development of an inclusive society in Ukraine. It demonstrates significance of theoretical investigations by D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson</em> <em>into the development of inclusive political and economic institutions as established practices of an inclusive society. The article investigates methodological possibilities of a mono-causal </em><em>«</em><em>simple theory</em><em>»</em><em> approach, which D. Acemoglu</em><em> and J.A. Robinson use to clarify the main contours of economic and political development of different countries from the Neolithic revolution till now. The key idea of the two US scientists is that all the roots of poverty can be traced to politics and political processes. These topics form the subject of their analysis.</em></p> <p><em>We note that D. </em><em>Acemoglu</em><em> and J.A. Robinson maintain institutional point of view and argue that societies’ growth requires effective institutions. Inclusive institutions, such as property rights, access to markets, equality before the law, access to infrastructure, support for economic and social mobility, and investment in human capital are needed for economic development. By contrast, extractive institutions enable the appropriation of rent by privileged groups in society, i.e. the elites. These institutions only redistribute resources rather than supporting development. They discriminate and expropriate.</em></p> <p><em>D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson consider political institutions fundamental to economic growth. They divide these into inclusive and extractive institutions as well. For D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson, politics is the process of a society choosing the rules governing its activities, and political institutions are the key determinant in the result of the struggle for economic gain – the prosperity of a nation, groups or specific individuals. Political institutions determine who has power in society and what power can be used for.</em></p> <p><em>Inclusive political institutions are characterised by plurality – various interest groups affecting political decisions. Under such conditions, the control over life in the country cannot be concentrated within a narrow group. However, D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson also caution that sufficient centralization is required to prevent chaos in a wide plurality. Extractive political institutions allow a narrow circle of elites to concentrate political power and subordinate economic institutions to the task of collecting resources from the rest of society.</em></p> <p><em>The article emphasises the importance of D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson’s conclusion regarding the synergies between political and economic institutions. Inclusive political institutions with their wide distribution of power do not allow the usurping of power over economic institutions; and equitable distribution of resources encourages strengthening of inclusive political institutions (“inclusive society”). Such synergies are also inherent in extractive institutions.</em></p> <p><em>Four types of institutions create four possible institutional combinations. However, two combinations are typically reproduced: inclusive political and economic institutions, and extractive political and economic institutions. If there is a need to go beyond the bounds of extractive political and economic institutions, such opportunities arise at critical junctures, created by shock situations.</em></p> <p><em>The article emphasises the cautious nature of D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson’s conclusions regarding the ways of changing political institutions in society from extractive to inclusive ones, and their confidence in the contingent nature of history, which might create or not create inclusive political institutions. However, even in the context of contingency, inclusive political and economic institutions, if they appeared, would be more likely to be reproduced in history, forming a virtuous circle. There is also a vicious circle of extractive institutions.</em></p> <p><em>The article also considers the ignorance hypothesis approach as the foundation of the influence of western political elites. According to D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson, western politicians are convinced that the roots of the poverty problem lie in the lack of knowledge about generating prosperity among the poor countries’ elites. D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson emphasise that the overall perspective chosen by international organisations is false because they do not recognise the key role of political institutions.</em></p> <p><em>It is noted that D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson do not provide a programmatic answer to the question of how to create inclusive political institutions, instead emphasising that there is no recipe for the development of such institutions. There are factors that can contribute to their appearance: a significant level of centralisation that will not allow social movements that are trying to change the existing regime out of the boundaries of the law; availability of a broad coalition; civil society institutions that are able to coordinate the demands of the population so that  the </em><em>opposition movements</em><em> would not be easily crushed by existing elites or used by another group to establish their control over extractive political institutions.</em></p> <p><em>We conclude that under the conditions of contingency, the responsibility of the political elites for their chosen development strategies and tactics grows immeasurably. History is not a destiny: a vicious circle can be broken. The elections awaiting Ukraine can become the breakthrough to a prosperous inclusive society.</em></p>

What causes a disaster's aftermath? Scholars have increasingly turned to historical approaches that link outcomes to pre-disaster sociopolitical dynamics. Disasters lead to 'critical junctures' that 'trigger' events that unfold in the wake of the initial phenomenon. This paper argues that the 'critical junctures' paradigm shares limitations with 'path dependency' theory from which it is derived, namely a tendency towards historicism-a functionalist teleology better able to explain continuity than change. As an alternative, this analysis draws on Michel Foucault's understanding of 'conditions of possibility' as a way of rethinking agency/causation, moving away from individual subjects, events, or even historical conditions towards, instead, the new, radically destabilised 'epistemological field' emerging in the disaster's aftermath. This paper examines a series of devastating earthquakes in Nepal to consider how post-disaster 'epistemological fields' present new 'conditions of possibility' within which new ideas, actions, and outcomes become thinkable and possible in ways that pre-disaster historical conditions could not have predicted.