Demand scenario planning approach using regression techniques and application to network sectors in Portugal

Abstract

Abstract This paper aims to develop and apply an approach for short-, medium- and long-term scenario planning. Construction of water demand scenarios is of the utmost importance for planning, design and operation of distribution systems, providing useful information to promote more efficient use of water resources. The proposed approach offers a new perspective for water utilities to obtain coherent and plausible descriptive scenarios as well as realistic water demand projections. This approach was applied to network sectors in existing water distributions systems, using extensive network flow data. Descriptive scenarios for water demand, considering trends and the uncertainties of the future, were obtained, together with improved Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models, with the inclusion of the key variable temperature and by using historical billed consumption, socio-demographic and infrastructure data. In addition, water demand projections for short- and long-term periods were obtained through the inclusion of future trends in the MLR models. Results from MLR models show enhanced empirical relations between water demand variables and water consumption key factors. This approach was validated using different distribution systems and the results have demonstrated the efficiency of the developed models for the projection of water demand.