Abstract
AbstractThe effectiveness of a demand-driven vocational-training program for disadvantaged youth in Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia is assessed through a randomized controlled trial. Mongolia, a transitional country whose economic structure shifted from a Communist, centrally planned economy to a free-market economy over a relatively short period, offers a new setting in which to test the effectiveness of market-based active-labor-market policies. Results show short-term positive impacts on self-employment and skills match, while positive but uncertain effects emerge for employment and earnings. Substantial heterogeneity emerges as relatively older, richer, and better-educated individuals drive these positive effects. A second intervention, in which participants were randomly assigned to receive newsletters with information on market returns to vocational training, shows statistically meaningful effects on the length of exposure to the program (i.e., number of training days attended). These positive impacts, however, do not lead to higher employment or greater earnings.
Highlights
Youth unemployment is an ubiquitous problem in most developed and developing countries
In the mid-nineties, following structural economic reforms similar to those seen in Mongolia, demand-driven programs became widely used in several Latin American countries, and assessments of their effectiveness showed positive effects on employment and earnings, for disadvantaged women (Betcherman et al, 2007)
This study analyses the effectiveness of a demand-driven vocational training program in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia
Summary
Youth unemployment is an ubiquitous problem in most developed and developing countries. In the mid-nineties, following structural economic reforms similar to those seen in Mongolia, demand-driven programs became widely used in several Latin American countries, and assessments of their effectiveness showed positive effects on employment and earnings, for disadvantaged women (Betcherman et al, 2007) Under this approach, private institutions offer training courses in occupations in which labor demand exists. We implemented a market-based program design following a standard randomized-control-trial (RCT) approach, which allowed us to identify, under weak conditions, causal treatment effects on employment and earnings This is the first ALMP in central Asia to employ an experimental counterfactual design. Provision of weekly newsletters to trainees with information on market returns for vocational training in Mongolia led to significant gains in the length of exposure to the program and lower dropout rates These positive results do not, translate into higher employment or earnings.
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