Abstract
Abstract NATO member states have been steadily increasing their levels of defence expenditures since 2015. In 2020, already ten member states met the NATO financial guidelines of spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) for defence, including 20% for major equipment. In addition, many other countries were planning to achieve this target by 2024. There are two factors, however, which could slow down this process. First, economic recession as a follow up to COVID-19 will have a negative influence on the state budgets. Defence spending could start decreasing in nominal terms, followed by the challenges in meeting NATO financial guidelines. Second, while President Donald Trump put the Alliance's burden-sharing in the centre of his policy vis-à-vis European allies, the current US administration, represented by the Democratic Party, will put more emphasis on multilateral cooperation as well as soft security instruments, including development and diplomacy. In consequence, even if the White House is going to stand strongly with 2/20% rule, it might lessen the pressure on European allies, especially Germany, to significantly accelerate defence spending, seeing transatlantic relationship in a broader division of risks and responsibilities. In this article, it is suggested that due to the economic crisis of the 2020s and the shift in the policy of the US Government, NATO member states would slow down, in short and mid-term perspectives, the process of increasing defence expenditures.
Highlights
Defence spending of NATO countries has been in the centre of transatlantic relations since at least 2016
International Monetary Fund estimates that the gross domestic products (GDPs) of the world fell by 3.3% in 2020
Severe economic crisis caused by COVID-19 will hinder NATO member states from keeping up with the increase of defence expenditures
Summary
Defence spending of NATO countries has been in the centre of transatlantic relations since at least 2016. While the US government was partially effective in causing pressure among the allies and the level of defence expenditures grew significantly as a result, the new political and economic realities at the beginning of the 2020s could hamper this trend. With a different-than-previous-administration perception on multilateralism, President Joe Biden is reshaping political relations with Germany, France and other European countries, putting more emphasis on non-military instruments, including development and diplomacy and lessening the pressure on enhancing defence expenditures. Given these circumstances, at least some of the NATO member states could be, in the short- and mid-term. The security environment close to North Atlantic Treaty area, especially on the eastern flank of the on eastern flank of NATO, can overcome this trend only in some countries
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