Abstract
In this study we investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany during the 21st century. We apply a machine learning groundwater level prediction approach based on convolutional neural networks to 118 sites well distributed over Germany to assess the groundwater level development under different RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 8.5). We consider only direct meteorological inputs, while highly uncertain anthropogenic factors such as groundwater extractions are excluded. While less pronounced and fewer significant trends can be found under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, we detect significantly declining trends of groundwater levels for most of the sites under RCP8.5, revealing a spatial pattern of stronger decreases, especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing already existing decreasing trends in these regions. We can further show an increased variability and longer periods of low groundwater levels during the annual cycle towards the end of the century.
Highlights
In this study we investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany during the 21st century
In a previous study[14], we showed that 1D-convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are a good choice for groundwater level simulation because they mostly outperform even long short-term memory (LSTM) models in terms of accuracy and calculation speed, as well as they showed considerably higher flexibility and modeling stability compared to NARX models
For each of the examined 118 test sites, we simulated the future weekly groundwater level development based on 5–6 climate projections per representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario
Summary
In this study we investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany during the 21st century. Drought effects accumulated over the years, because winter precipitation did not compensate for summer deficits This applies but especially to groundwater resources, which constitute the major source of drinking water supply in Germany (almost 70%)[4]. Strong usage conflicts can be expected in areas of low water availability between water suppliers and industry (process and cooling water), amplified by increasing agricultural irrigation demand, which currently has only minor significance with less than 2% of the total withdrawal volume[1]. RCP 2.6, a stringent mitigation scenario with an average global warming below 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, might be hard to reach at all, and even the intermediate RCP4.5 is still more ambitious than current (as of 2021) nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, according to UNFCCC8 Their analyses estimate global warming of approximately
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
